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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

0z GFS basically just shifting every feature (cold air/precip/low pressure center) south throughout the run. 

Do you believe it Bean? I cannot believe how much it made the northern precip vanish. 

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Very strange run. Almost like somebody jostled the map of the US and everything got shifted south.  Temps looked good until the end when 850s pooped out at 72 hours.  I don’t know — odd. 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

.5 moisture makes it to VA state line thats it :lol:

 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Wow that is a huge shift south on the 0z GFS...

I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.

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8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident".  Someone re-posted it yesterday.  If I knew how, I would re-post it again.  It should be required reading before one can post on here.

I posted it, it’s below as well.  Difference being then the models showed us getting hammered and they whiffed.  Even showing big totals day of the storm.  Not the same as this storm as there’s ALOT of time left.  Point being when I posted it for people to remember where we live and how imperfect these models are.  They can whiff the other way as well and us get more snow than they show, it’s just not as common.  

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.

Look at heading of the wave more east ots as oppossed to NE trying to turn,bend.

Wasnt their an oldtimer rule a wave enetering west coast always exited same longitude east coast most times. Beleive this one came in San Diego/ LA area

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Canadian looks more like nam. Precip shield is more expansive on the northern side. I’d love to post images but my dumb a** forgot my password for American Wx site. :arrowhead:

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Look at heading of the wave more east ots as oppossed to NE trying to turn,bend.

Wasnt their an oldtimer rule a wave enetering west coast always exited same longitude east coast most times. Beleive this one came in San Diego/ LA area

I heard Henry Margusty on accuweather say the same thing years ago. 

Probably don’t have his name spelled right. 

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13 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Very strange run. Almost like somebody jostled the map of the US and everything got shifted south.  Temps looked good until the end when 850s pooped out at 72 hours.  I don’t know — odd. 

Even I got snow that run.. :huh:

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The Canadian is 2" qpf most of which is snow for the NW Piedmont. 

Quickly, maybe you or someone... I'm new down here, I hear piedmont a lot. I obviously know that Asheville/Boone is the mountains, what is the Piedmont, and the triad? I live in Mooresville Iredell County and it's hard for me to reference what locationa you all are referring too. Thanks everyone in advance

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4 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

Quickly, maybe you or someone... I'm new down here, I hear piedmont a lot. I obviously know that Asheville/Boone is the mountains, what is the Piedmont, and the triad? I live in Mooresville Iredell County and it's hard for me to reference what locationa you all are referring too. Thanks everyone in advance

Give this a shot: 

physical_regionsmap.gif

 

The Triad is the Winston-Salem; Greensboro; High Point area. 

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Give this a shot: 

physical_regionsmap.gif

 

The Triad Winston-Salem; Greensboro; High Point area. 

I've been here 5 decades and never knew of a "inner coastal plain". Learn something new each day. Watch that locale get rocked and everyone else zip.

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Just now, griteater said:

Nudged south maybe it looks like??

A bit.. and colder, based on visual of the 850 line

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