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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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24 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous.  But there is going to be warming aloft here.  And it will be warmer and more extensive than the globals are showing.  For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA.

I don't think the warming aloft will be as bad as you think. I think we will get a good thump of snow like Allan said, 4 to 6 inches, before getting some ice on top of it.

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3 minutes ago, MillerA said:

Over to hickory as well? 

Yes. Fact state line east down 74 corridor into sandhills, then fluctuates up n down between there and south of hwy 64 by a good bit.  Hard to watch models on a phone, atleast for us old folks.

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Just now, tarheelwx said:

I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations.  Anybody confirm?

TW

It has done quite well in the past.

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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations.  Anybody confirm?

TW

It has a bias to be too cold. 

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1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It has done quite well in the past.

Agreed, primary go to when the NAM looks off, difference usually verifies somewhere in the middle. 

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3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It has done quite well in the past.

It goes out to 72 hrs, so becoming usefull now and need to monitor here on in. Laptop at work and aggetating looping stuff on phone.

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3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations.  Anybody confirm?

TW

Seems to maybe do better in the MA and points north? It has done well here too but took it on the chin from the NAM in a couple recent events.

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3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I thought RGEM was excellent for temps in CAD situations.  Anybody confirm?

TW

I can't speak for the temp profile but it is my understanding that the RGEM is good with PTYPE

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6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I don't think the warming aloft will be as bad as you think. I think we will get a good thump of snow like Allan said, 4 to 6 inches, before getting some ice on top of it.

Ok good deal.  Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft?

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Ok good deal.  Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft?

He lives in Wake Forest vs SE Wake County, with the advances in computer simulations over the past 5-10 years, local hasn't changed. 

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Lol.

GFS coming in further south and the high, while not as far east, is stronger, for whatever that ultimately ends up being worth.

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I just don't. Why do you think it will be?

He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident".  Someone re-posted it yesterday.  If I knew how, I would re-post it again.  It should be required reading before one can post on here.

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ok good deal.  Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft?

Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes  is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch  real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you  get  a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose.

So you want deny the warmnose but if you can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes  is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch  real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you  get  a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose.

So you want deny the warmnose but ifbyou can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.

Yep, good post.

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