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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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I'm pretty shocked at some of the high totals I see for Wake from some of the mets that are usually conservative.  I am not making a map because I really only forecast for the Wake area.  If I did, I would have 1-3" of snow for Wake, 3" in the NW and 1" in SE.  
My reasons:  Medium range models show temperatures borderline and warm in Central NC.  Soundings also show a very borderline event with a warm nose at times.  It is very hard to overcome the warm once it is there.  Mixing and wet snow will cut down on ratios considerably.  

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

With Euro being the most consistent model for this storm will credence be given to that model going forward? Considering it’s in the euro wheel house right now. Thanks for answering these for us!

Each forecaster has their own take on what's working better, but yeah the EC will be given good weight I imagine.  

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9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

With Euro being the most consistent model for this storm will credence be given to that model going forward? Considering it’s in the euro wheel house right now. Thanks for answering these for us!

Euro and FV3 have both been very consistent with their outputs the last two days.

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6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

@isohume if you get us a foot of snow, I’ll find the Vikings a kicker that can’t miss. 

 

Seriously though, not jealous of y’all tonight. What a mess of a situation to try and hash out.

Lol, deal!! Its been a three-ring circus at the office and it wont get better. The phone traffic alone is dizzying. 

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21 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I remember closing in on the Feb 2014 event that the upper layers started coming in colder as the medium range models came in play. I don't remember exactly how far out though. Being 54 hrs out or so now you would think tonight at Oz something need to start happening and definitely by 12z tomorrow. If not I think it'll be a lot of heartbreak come go time for the 85 camp. You can't go into one of these storms being modeled on the edge. Cutoff most likely ends up nw of where modeled.

I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive.  There was zero doubt as to if it would get there.  As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA 

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8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5”

Queen, Could you tell me the SREF snow mean for RDU

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Queen, Could you tell me the SREF snow mean for RDU

Half as much as 15z and temps warmer too. Looks like 00z NAM will follow suit with that.

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive.  There was zero doubt as to if it would get there.  As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA 

Yeah unfortunately I feel this one may be different. No where near the strong cold push and that was Feb. There was no doubt about the cold with that storm. Just precip types.

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15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5”

Looks like it actually ticked up about .4", from 4.21" and plumes done snowing at 15 compared to 4.61" and some plumes still snowing.  HKY went from 11.98" to 9.73" but again, more plumes showing it still showing it snowing.  

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16 minutes ago, SENC said:

I read the Whole Blog.. Nice thinking Outside the Box, considering the "upstream" ramifactions on Our Local Weather..  Thoughts on this  @griteater?? 

Guy has solid stuff

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Even at Danville the mean is only a little over 4.. not good signs for the upcoming NAM..

Or you look at Charlotte where the 18Z NAM had zero inches but the 21z SREF had 4.5.

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Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him.  Temperatures just aren't great for Wake.  Lots of rain.  Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy.  

I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Or you look at Charlotte where the 18Z NAM had zero inches but the 21z SREF had 4.5.

Hopefully it reverses it 

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Just now, Poimen said:

With the SREF mean at GSO, about half next to nothing. Several were up in the 8-20" range, but the mean was skewed low because of the others. 

I noticed that at TDF. There were less members with low numbers but it drug the number down.

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.

Definitely won’t disagree with you there but it’s useful in this sense because you can see the NAM is pretty much arguing with it’s  own ensemble members.

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

The SREF is an awful model. Really Useless. Worse than useless.

I gave up on it after Feb '14.  

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel doing a live stream now and I completely agree with him.  Temperatures just aren't great for Wake.  Lots of rain.  Wet or slushy roads at times, not icy.  

I'd be surprised at more than 1" in Wake.

Yes, I agree.  We'll see some snow at the beginning but think we will switch to rain at some point.  Once I saw the warm nose, I knew it was the kiss of death.  Hopefully I'm wrong.

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Don't know if it will matter, but at hour 30 the surface low is well north of previous runs in E TX. 

I think it's just the precip shield.  The low itself is now slightly south at 36

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Just now, Wow said:

I gave up on it after Feb '14.  

That one bust in 2015 is where I finally threw my hands up. Mean of 14 inches 12 hours before a storm my ass.

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For the city of Charlotte right now, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow/sleet/slop, then up to an inch of snow at the end via slow to exit snow showers on the backside. Tough forecast though given what I think will be hefty precip totals.

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