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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.

It almost seems like the current shift leader said "I am yanking the towel out from under the other shift". Kinda weird how they went from one extreme to another. There is still enough time for changes with the model runs. Hmmm...

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Blacksburgs version 

StormTotalSnow.png

In my opinion a very good map. Has amounts that would have significant impacts with wiggle room to go up or down.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU.  

So, either that much freezing rain, 8 inches of snow, or 4 inches of snow and .40 of freezing rain is going to be a big deal. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now.

Neither is Allen Huffman. GSP went too aggressive this morning then went the other way this afternoon to lower

expectations. But if you look at there high end snow map to low end snow map, see below, you can see they are covering everything

and just went super conservative

SnowAmt10Prcntl.png

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

So, either that much freezing rain, 8 inches of snow, or 4 inches of snow and .40 of freezing rain is going to be a big deal. 

Anything greater that .5" can get real bad. Again it only take .25" to warrant a Winter Storm criteria.  

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36 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Dang, that’s not good. Wonder what they saw? Weaker high? 

Makes sense to me, all models showing mostly a mix to ice in western upstate; makes for lower totals. Thick enough cold air not making it far enough SW, especially with slightly lower high. 

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34 minutes ago, Poimen said:

By 18Z Sunday the NAM has a sleet sounding over the Triad with a pronounced warm nose above 850. 

The NAM is good at spotting those and I've noticed a lot of our storms have warm noses in the 700-800 mb range that you won't pick up on the "normal" 850 mb 0C charts (or on the clown maps).  Soundings are important.

I think my call for the Triad at this point would be for 6-8" snow/sleet with freezing rain on top.  A lot of storms end up in that range in the area.

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant accumulations of snow combined with sleet and
  freezing rain is expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches combined with ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an
  inch are possible. The greatest snow amounts are likely to be in
  the Triad, where amounts could approach 10 inches.

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Anything greater that .5" can get real bad. Again it only take .25" to warrant a Winter Storm criteria.  

.5" of freezing rain would be major outages. .25" is the level when outages usually begin.  If this is the case, it needs to be getting more attention.  Snow is nice, that amount of freezing rain is dangerous.

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I’ve been wondering.  If you were to piece together the various call maps from adjacent NWS field offices, would the accumulation projections along their border counties match up fairly well?  Has anyone ever seen a 10” call for one county and then 2” in a neighboring county forecasted by another NWS office?

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4 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The NAM is good at spotting those and I've noticed a lot of our storms have warm noses in the 700-800 mb range that you won't pick up on the "normal" 850 mb 0C charts (or on the clown maps).  Soundings are important.

I think my call for the Triad at this point would be for 6-8" snow/sleet with freezing rain on top.  A lot of storms end up in that range in the area.

You usually can tell on soundings before models pick it up.  If you have WSW or SW flow over 30kts in the 700-850 layer anywhere and aren’t at least -2C or colder it’s generally verifying above 0 in the end 

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FWIW, and it may be totally unrelated, but it's interesting that it appears as if the NAM totally busted on the high side out in Oklahoma. Just brutal for some of those areas. Maybe it will bust here equally bad on the low side. ;)

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

FWIW, and it may be totally unrelated, but it's interesting that it appears as if the NAM totally busted on the high side out in Oklahoma. Just brutal for some of those areas. Maybe it will bust here equally bad on the low side. ;)

To clarify - you mean there was more accumulation than the NAM modeled?

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29 minutes ago, rduwx said:

Once that warm nose makes an appearance for the RDU area, I've learned to count on it.  It's usually worse than modeled.  I'm not saying that's the case for this storm but I've found that mostly true for past storms.

I just looked thru the NAM, Euro, GFS, and FV3 with the 850 low track and temps, and it's not pretty.  The FV3 is the coldest of the 4 even though its track is comparatively pretty far north....but it maintains the cold aloft the best on the front side of the storm in NC...it's the model to root for with the CLT To RDU crowd.  The other thing to root for is for continued suppression of the southern wave...either via it taking a little bit more of a southerly track or the NE confluence coming in a little stronger.  Anything that tracks the wave just a little farther south will want to make the 850mb low track a little farther south as well.  It's probably a tall task, but that's what is needed.  Here's the 850mb evolution on the FV3 on the front side of the storm:

3Gj3LSQ.gif

 

 

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9 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’ve been wondering.  If you were to piece together the various call maps from adjacent NWS field offices, would the accumulation projections along their border counties match up fairly well?  Has anyone ever seen a 10” call for one county and then 2” in a neighboring county forecasted by another NWS office?

Blacksburg NWS has good discussion text

 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

Cold high pressure will continue to move east across the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic region Saturday evening. Overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, cold dry air will wedge south into
the Carolinas and southern Appalachian Mountains. Meanwhile
across the south, an upper level low over the Mid West will push
a surface low east across the Gulf States. Bulk of Gulf and
Atlantic moisture with the surface low will stay south of the
area through Saturday evening. Snow will edge northward Saturday
night, starting across the High Country of North Carolina then
spreading across the entire area Sunday morning.

Sunday morning the upper level low tracks over Tennessee and
Kentucky increasing moisture transport over the wedge. The
combination of upslope flow, strong warm air advection and
isentropic lift will bring moderate to heavy snow to areas along
and south of highway 460. With an easterly flow, the higher
accumulations will be across counties along and adjacent to the
Blue Ridge. Going into the afternoon, the surface low tracks off
the Southeast Coast, taking majority of the moisture and lift
with it. However, the area will sit in the deformation zone
between the surface low and upper level trough into Monday
morning. Even though snowfall rates will decrease Sunday night,
persistent light snow will continue to fall into Monday morning.
There is a possibility snow will continue through the day
Monday as the deformation zones hangs over the area, waiting on
a stronger upper level low over the northern Plains to kick
everything to the east on Tuesday.

Before we get to the first guess storm totals, there are
several questions yet to be answered with this event. At the top
of the list is the track of the surface low. A wobble north or
south will dramatically change amounts. Second, is the effect of
the dry air with the wedge. Does this dry air hold off
precipitation or does it contribute to higher totals early due
to fluffiness. Late in the event, snow is expected to be wetter
and heavier, compressing the drier fluffy snow already on the
ground. With all that said, our first guess totals through
Sunday night will range from 12-18 inches across the North
Carolina High Country and Grayson Highlands to 5-10 inches
across the Mountain Empire, New River and Roanoke Valleys to
Southside Virginia. North of highway 460, 2 to 6 inches are
possible. Again these are first guess estimates on a storm that
is 2-3 days away.

Temperatures will drop into the 20s Friday and may warm into
the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday. Temperatures will again
drop into the 20s Saturday night, but may not get above freezing
Sunday. Clouds and possibly snow will hang around Monday with
temperatures warming above freezing but not making it out of the
30s.

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1 minute ago, PGAWx said:

To clarify - you mean there was more accumulation than the NAM modeled?

No---sorry if I worded that incorrectly. It's the oppsite. It was going bonkers with precip (1.5" qpf)/snow 24 hours ago and some areas are going to end up with zilch. 

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39 minutes ago, griteater said:

I'd like to revisit this...I will not get more snow than Newland or Lenoir or Hickory

Its all Cantores fault......he should have never went to asheville smdh. sorry i know its banter if the nam keeps it up its guna be a sleetfest.....

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Just now, Poimen said:

No---sorry if I worded that incorrectly. It's the oppsite. It was going bonkers with precip (1.5" qpf)/snow 24 hours ago and some areas are going to end up with zilch. 

Ahh, gotcha.  Misconstrued "brutal". 

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