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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

This just proves that the models still don't have a complete grasp on how much cold air will be available and how strong the CAD will be. Do I think Charlotte, Raleigh, or even the Triad will see close to 2 feet of snow? No, I don't. Though the Triad stands a slightly better chance. But it also doesn't mean that some of these big totals won't come to fruition even for CLT, RAH, and even GSP. Heck, NE suburbs of Atlanta may end up ZR and maybe some backside snow. There is still soo much time left to go and so many more model runs to go through. So stay within close proximity to the "cliff" but it's way too soon to be standing with one foot off or jump. 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event. 

Yeah I would say we very well might and most certainly a sleet fest for a bit. Sleet is around 4:1 ratio for accums.

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5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What??  It's not rare at all for the models to show 6 inches of snow in Raleigh.

I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. 

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

So you think Greensboro only gets 1 to 2 inches. Interesting

They're right on the 2-4" line.  I can make that work. :)

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The FV3 started with Rock Hill at 28", then it moved to 20, then 17. But it also has had NE Ga going up on totals a little at a time. Telling me the CAD they are thinking is setting up a little sooner, and will be fierce. That is good for some, bad for others. CMC has a broader range of snow then it did Wednesday, but a slightly smaller one then earlier. But the depth is greater. The 12z NAM doesn't seem to be quite as broad, but now they are starting to have 12 plus inches into Greenville and Spartanburg Counties. But that is falling, not how much on ground of course.

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25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

It’ll be back in January with colder air, and blocking - take it to the dam bank

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Crazy wind gusts on that last run through North GA and Western NC Mountains 30-40 with occasionally 50+. Definitely looking at near blizzard conditions in a lot of areas if that comes to fruition.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Is there such thing as a cold rain or sleet blizzard?

Nope, snow only with vis below 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours in frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or higher. 

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15 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Put my initial map out this am.
799170fd5d75bcb6e13b5c3b2de64ef5.jpg

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

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1 minute ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

Will there be any issues with wind around Charlotte or surrounding suburbs north or south? Haven't seen much talk about wind 

I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet. 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Nice map! 

I can see Caesars head getting 12” easily! TR gets 4-6+”

How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?

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Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds.

WPlotter.thumb.png.2126582148bbb018fdb05211a606408b.png

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I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet. 
Do you see CLT staying frozen throughout the whole storm, honestly I think it might happen.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change

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2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true

I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours.

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How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?
Simpsonville?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Do you see CLT staying frozen throughout the whole storm, honestly I think it might happen.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 

It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. 

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Ive seen these storms set up shot with a raging sleet storm between Mauldin and Greenwood. North side of 276 in Mauldin usually sitting right on that snow transition line. All goods north from there 

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