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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

This was the basis of my question earlier that I wasn't sure if someone answered it.  It is of better hope that the global models pick up much better with the HP placement and strength while the NAM does better with the thermal profiling of the CAD once the HP is set in place?   

Also someone mentioned earlier that I wasn't sure if it had been answered.  Is the fact the NAM is much closer to the event over the southern plains region should we use that model trend as a better gauge for what's going to happen in our neck of the woods.  Or since it's a CAD event, the NAM's trending projections of the southern plains isn't as neccessary to what happens in the South East?  Any input is appreciated, thanks!

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I believe the FV3 just gave me my highest fantasy snow totals for this event. I had another run a few days back that gave me 20"; this gives me 24".

Now if I can just get 8" I'll be real happy... 

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Just now, Poimen said:

As others have stated, this will be a big test for the FV 3. 

fv3_12z_6.jpg.png

I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.

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Just now, mwp1023 said:

Maybe NAM is on to something...

Looks like its more because of a drop in qpf than anything else, and we know typically the nothern portion of the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.

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Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

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The problem with the FV3 totals is that the model is including sleet, and possibly freezing rain, in its totals.  You're safer to take half of the total number and assume that will be the highest potential amount of snow.  Then, you won't be overly disappointed.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual

I really feel like this will be our typical storm. Models waffling but the players are in place. Outside of the mountains it depends on the placement of the high and the strength of the CAD. The R/S line will set up in its usual place 20 or so miles north or south of I85 and we end up with 1-6 inches in those areas above. Just my thoughts right now.

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5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.

I don't disagree. Still, will be interesting to see how it verifies. 

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1 minute ago, pbrown85 said:

Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

It's still in beta stage and likely being tweaked.

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6 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS

Losing half an inch of QPF will do that

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To be fair in terms of QPF the fv3 more closely matches the ukmet and cmc on the 12z data
The eps at 0z had 2 inches of QPF all the way into northern foothills. So at this time the consensus is for more QPF than gfs/nam that could change but as of now no trend


.

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS

We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Losing half an inch of QPF will do that

But when I said last night there were trends for less QPF in western sections everyone jumped on me :rolleyes:

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS

I wouldn't use ensembles to nail down QPF specifics. They're more for seeing track shifts and giving a general idea of where the jackpot will be 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The total qpf went down quite a bit on the GEFS. That's why the snow mean went down. 

06z vs. 12z

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_22.png

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_21.png

Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far.

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I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, so there's a chance it's on to something.  We've all been burned by those warm noses many times...

Of course, it's pretty far out still to really trust the NAM, but closer in it will be interesting.

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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Well, it's early in the run, but at 24 hours, Euro showing less cold air intrusion somewhat similar to 12z NAM. 

ecmwf_T850_neus_fh24_trend.gif

850 temps are at or colder however 

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