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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Dude...no offense but you're as predictable as the day is long. We are willing to concede that you are on record poo-pooing this entire event for everyone who is in it while you only dream of snow in Wilmington. 

I grew up in Fayetteville. I have seen my share of good snow. I only point out what the models are doing.  You know the truth. Sorry if that crushes your dreams. 

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12z FV3 has much more QPF the current gfs. Storm totals nearing 2 inches all the way to VA border more in line with other globals

 

 

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bb04907688d1680900f40da3bd62257f.gif&key=29f5fa5ba2daf82dec80edc8328bb2d863dc751c232fee4d67370e2d2ee282c3

 

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Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU.  We were borderline anyways.  Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now.  Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess.

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If my memory serves correctly, I believe the Canadian has a decent score with CAD events AND ULL's?? I can remember more than a couple of times the Canadian verifying on backend snows. 

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Believe it or not, there is far more to meteorology than model hugging. Some would do well to bone up on the basics instead of blurting out their IMBY reaction to the latest model run.

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU.  We were borderline anyways.  Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now.  Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess.

GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 

I sure hope so. (we've said this way too many times but) This next run is huge. 

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Meteorology is different than modelology.  Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job.

Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week.  A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts.  

To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times.  I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away.        

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6 minutes ago, BFF said:

Believe it or not, there is far more to meteorology than model hugging. Some would do well to bone up on the basics instead of blurting out their IMBY reaction to the latest model run.

or panicking when one model shows a negative solution. Some people irrationally use storm busts too. 

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This is going to be a really big test for the FV 3. I'm curious to see how accurate it is. It has not wobbled one bit that I can recall in recent days. Going off the crude 4 panel NCEP maps, the 12Z looks like a good snow event for the western/northern Piedmont of NC. It also still has some leftovers on Monday. 

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Folks, we still have 3-4 days before this storm really gets going. As we all know, there is so much that can change between now and Sunday.  Posting a NAM or GFS snow map and saying "it's all over for your backyard" and yada... yada... yada, does not belong on this thread. 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 

Yeah, Canadian was actually better compared to its previous runs. GFS still looked good for most of NC. That would still be a big storm for here. 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Meteorology is different than modelology.  Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job.

Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week.  A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts.  

To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times.  I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away.        

You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. 

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. 

I was just coming on here to say this. 850 line in a good spot south of CLT, good temps aloft during the heavy stuff. Sfc temps were bad for folks south of GSO but they always are around this time on the models. Storm can still go to the crapper but it isn't that far off from its past runs.

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. 

It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. 

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8 minutes ago, Poimen said:

You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. 

Yep and you can see this on the models. I've found that thickness is a good way to spot ice/rain. You want to be above the 540 line or between it and the 546 because as it cools the column you get sub 540. What you don't want are those red lines stacking on you. It'll be ZR every time and if you're at 546 it's usually sleet. In this case CLT is on the line but with that 850 line well south I'd  take my chances that mother nature does the rest of the work.

Sorry for the crude drawing. On my phone right now.

A217712C-76CC-43D6-AD6B-E54E3A2E3693.jpeg

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Still amazed at the overall model agreement. Usually by this time Nam is Nope, GFS is maybe next week and Euro says buy a snow blower and everyone is picking shirts or skins to see who caves. All we're seeing is oscillations and noise with almost universal agreement that there's going to be a storm, where it's going to be, and when it's going to happen. It's like yeah, you're pregnant, do you want to know the sex? The reveal party is Saturday night.

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. 

One of the posts I saw pointed to the fact that the global models may not be capturing the mid-level temps very well

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Where the trailing 850 low goes, so does the waa and movement in snow ice. 12z NAM and GFS came in further north into TN compared to 06z. CMC pivoted to the coast further south over C AL. 

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Saturday Night
Rain. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
 
I will be back in a bit guys, I need to buy some sandbags...:raining:
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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

12z FV3  very similar to 6z -- HP maybe even nosing in a bit more. Good run through 66 hours at least. 

Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck?

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Just now, RTPGiants said:

Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck?

You have to click around on TT to different panels. Sometimes the Radar is stuck, but the 850 temps/MLSP moves ahead.

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