Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, ajr said:

 

That's really not surprising.  I've tried not to post much during this storm because I didn't want to come across as too negative but once the warm nose showed up on the NAM the first time I didn't have a good feeling.  We still need to wait and see how this turns out and I really hope I'm wrong.  I love snow just as much as everyone else.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

Good call and here at randolph, guilford county line id go 4 to 8 and plenty of sleet on top. Dont think Ill reach 6 before sleet gets here, but 4 to 8 gives wiggle room each way. Out to WS and north of Gboro 7 to 12 looks doable, same cavaets apply.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

There's that psychological factor of hitting double digits, or the one foot mark, but all and all it should be a pretty satisfying storm, as long as we can get a few impressive snow bands before the changeover. On the plus side, we don't have to worry about melty mush snow, we get the best during the daytime and it should stick around for a few days. 

It looks like the latest RAP joins the consensus with sleet coming in around 11 am.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like northern union county might end up with just cold rain. Happens every time.



Actually, Union County (especially the northern half) maybe be able to “jackpot” in some way seeing as how it’s on that edge. Not saying we will end up with more snow than places to the NW, as it rarely does unless, the storm is super suppressed. But if we can get higher precip rates, it may be game on.


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

I think they are banking on the warm nose not being as strong. Others are saying it will be and cut into totals big time. Who knows maybe we get lucky up that way. I tend to think it will be somewhere in between with snow and then sleet/zr.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 



We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RAH Disco:

Snow/Ice amounts: 

Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet 
snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, 
with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with 
diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near 
freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 
to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle 
overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". 

Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1,  snow amounts 
of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring 
through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into 
the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to 
freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible 
through the afternoon.
If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, 
snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 
0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts 
in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed 
trees and power-lines. 

Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into 
the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to 
SE reduction in snow and ice amounts.  After a quick morning burst 
of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of 
snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected 
before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.  
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...