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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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9 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

I can also verify this - 5-6 miles NNW of I-85 in the Upstate west of GVL the way the crow flies, sitting at 37 and mixing when precip gets heavy, all rain when it lightens up.  It is trying...

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Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!

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12 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

"If you haven't prepared for this winter storm, your window is closing rapidly. Driving will be dangerous AT LEAST tonight through tomorrow PM and many folks will lose power. A bunch of us at the office at GSP are even planning to sleep here tonight. This is one to take seriously."

 

This just came in from GSP's Facebook page. Despite some of the newer globals, I am not quite ready to call this a "bust" yet and go cliff diving. Yet, it seems like a lot of you have already jumped and are plummeting to the ground.  

Nobody is “jumping off a cliff” - people are consuming the data. Right now it follows what most expected. A warm nose eroding cad. 

 

 

1E71E792-2808-4010-AFBC-35CE4AD24B97.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!

Pretty much this.  I’d say it’s classic climatology with a few things working AGAINST it.  Source air region isn’t that cold.  Antecedent in situ air isn’t that dry (dewpoints in the 20s, not 0s/teens).  Early season warmer inshore waters promoting closer-in energy handoff and coastal low track (watch Southport, NC climb into the 60s during the event as the low passes nearshore). 

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Just now, blueheronNC said:

Pretty much this.  I’d sat it’s classic climatology with a few things working AGAINST it.  Source air region isn’t that cold.  Antecedent in situ air isn’t that dry (dewpoints in the 20s, not 0s/teens).  Early season warmer inshore waters promoting closer-in energy handoff and coastal low track (watch Southport, NC climb into the 60s during the event as the low passes nearshore). 

Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.

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1 minute ago, Cornsnow said:

Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.

The HRRR is holding on - its historically good with eroding CAD on model verification scores. It's still looking good. 

However, there is a 50+KT SWly jet aloft, that doesn't bode well. 

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41 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

 

41 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south. 

8E947E2D-24BA-4AFB-902D-394495A49311.png

It does look great. I am sure there will be ice mixed in, but I think the majority of the models are showing a good hit of snow before changing to ice up my way. I'll take the majority instead of seeking out the one or two that show the worst case scenario.

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1 hour ago, Poimen said:

Bet it was the 700mb temps on the EURO. 

 

1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

 

8E6888A6-EA8C-42B5-B83B-2B875E754177.png

Probably 750 mb or so, assuming it's on the same wavelength as some of the other modeling.  There's not any good (public) charts at that level aside from soundings, though, generally.  But the WB and SV clown maps won't pick up on this and show it as snow.

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised if BL temps verify colder than predicted as CAD at ground level often takes longer to erode than expected.

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Literally, the 18Z HRRR is snow from the Triad to RDU from roughly 1am to 10am. After 10, it transitions to sleet at RDU before rain around noon. It does bring sleet into the Triad by 11-noon,but by then 12 or more inches of snow has fallen. 

So, maybe 1 to 2 less hours of snow here. That does not sound bad at all if the Triad gets a foot.

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4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So, maybe 1 to 2 less hours of snow here. That does not sound bad at all if the Triad gets a foot.

Keep in mind the HRRR because of the rapidity of its cycle, it's discovery can be progressive.   Let's hope it holds where it is.

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1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

18z NAM is coming in warmer and further north.

When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time?

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