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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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So for RDU folks, the 12z NAM did come in slightly colder. Meaning the initial snow line setups just south and east of Wake County. Then it still slowly pushes NW through the event. The last run had it eventually turning to rain back into Durham/Orange counties. But this run keeps the rain line no farther NW then the RDU airport until very late in the game; when the bulk of the precip is over.  

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12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

Local temps are as low as 33 at sky valley  and 38 at the dot station in clayton currently which is about where they should be. I haven't seen anything that has changed that would lead me to believe your changeover wouldn't be around mid day to early afternoon.  

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now!

absolutely - I work up that way and told many that a potential huge snow was coming their way - I'm probably 10-12 miles south and east of Landrum right on the I-85 corridor but luckily my area IMO is still considered Northern Upstate - it's such a sharp gradient in these locations!   Hoping for a bigun! 

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On the topic of the upper waves.  The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas.  The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan  - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE.  Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now.  Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

On the topic of the upper waves.  The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas.  The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan  - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE.  Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now.  Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC

If this much snow falls you're also gonna see temps plummet so anything that fell would stick. It could be an intriguing little bonus. 

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As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority.

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5 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority.

It must be nice to speak so authoritatively on a subject so few have been able to fully grasp. I envy that. True clarity is much harder for me. By the way, you opened a parenthesis and didn’t close it. 

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4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority.

Very well could be; and with past events (and being marginal with upper and surface temps) we should expect this outcome. Like I stated in an earlier post, if it ends up being primarily sleet it would be impressive to see all the forecasted qpf. Liquid to sleet would be ~4". I would call that a win. Plus amazing sledding for the kids....

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

It must be nice to speak so authoritatively on a subject so few have been able to fully grasp. I envy that. True clarity is much harder for me. By the way, you opened a parenthesis and didn’t close it. 

Merry Christmas! 

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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Oh I know what it shows...just with thickness right on the line and that heavy of precip I don't buy it...but I guess if you buy one part you gotta buy the car on these modesl haha. 

Yes, it's definitely close.  I don't think we're going to know until we're right at the start.

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7 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I don’t know if there is a site or if this is available however, is there a place I can get live soundings anywhere? 

University of Wyoming has a good site for the actual balloon launch soundings (launched twice a day at 12z and 00z) - http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

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