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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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MHX is dangling a carrot for us folks just east of I95. Either way I'm expecting little to nothing but its possible this could be a couple inches higher in totals if these models they list are correct.

...High pressure to the north will
strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC.
This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over
the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This
combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday
morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is
becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple
inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston,
Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches
of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for
longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC
HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these
counties.
We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these
areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day
today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the
early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain.

 

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12 minutes ago, neilpappas75 said:

I think it's because all the thicknesses are too high even all the way up to around Virginia. And every 6 hours, they get better, but not good enough.

Yep to me that's concerning...however to your point it tends to be a tick better the past two runs. I personally think if you're right on the edge of that 546 line there's enough heavy moisture to overcome it and with winds being easterly and coming from the north that should get it done. 

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Posted 11 minutes ago
...Significant Winter Storm to Impact much of Central North
Carolinas tonight through Monday...

.A developing winter storm will spread heavy snow and ice
across central North Carolina tonight and Sunday. Some wintry
precipitation may linger Sunday night into Monday prolonging the
storm.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow late tonight and Sunday morning, becoming mixed snow
and freezing rain Sunday afternoon. A transition to all freezing
rain is possible Sunday afternoon. Total snow accumulations of
3 to 6 inches. Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch
expected.

* WHERE...A corridor of the eastern Piedmont and northwest
Sandhills regions of central North Carolina. This includes much
of the Triangle area.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel is likely to be very difficult
Sunday and Sunday night. Even in locations with lesser snow
accumulations, the potential for accumulations of snow and
freezing rain combined will impact travel. Downed trees and
limbs may create significant power outages additional travel
hazards.

* Temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning,
rising into the lower 30s Sunday afternoon and evening.
 
 
they pulled the trigger
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10 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Yep to me that's concerning...however to your point it tends to be a tick better the past two runs. I personally think if you're right on the edge of that 546 line there's enough heavy moisture to overcome it and with winds being easterly and coming from the north that should get it done. 

Agree completely, which is where I got my totals. But the thing that worries me is that the models are picking up the heavy precip, which should compensate enough with the winds, but there are not changing those numbers.

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A few things for folks south of I-40, I'm typically biased towards the optimistic side (why I'm in marketing and not a scientist). So if you end up with a ton of sleet and go, "but models said" or if you end up with all snow expecting sleet and go, "but the models said".. here is the list of the negatives and positives: 

Negatives:

Statistically, odds are not in our favor for a major winter event in December. It just doesn't happen that much, so first things first we're fighting against climate and history. 

As @Cold Rain has stated many times we don't have a true polar air mass. So this isn't a situation where moisture is brute forcing it's way into sub-freezing temperatures and snow is a lock.

When you have to count on the storm to do the bulk of the dynamic work at the 850 level at game-time it usually doesn't end well for folks from GSP-CLT-RDU.

 

Positives:

Wisdom is knowing a tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad. Wisdom tells us given the factors at play (and GSP/WPC lays it out better than most on here could) the models aren't properly predicting what usually happens. 

There's just enough cold air to work with it. 

Even IF the models are right you get a historic storm, it just may end up being mostly sleet

Even IF the models are right most should still end up with a few inches of snow which is a minor miracle in early December anyways

 

Bottom line is, more focus will now be on what's happening on the ground and short-term models to better predict how this plays out. There will be winners and there will be losers. A winner or loser may be one county over or just a few miles in one direction. Good luck to everyone! 

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1 hour ago, SVA_SN said:

6z rgem has the heavy snow in the same area as the 00z but even higher totals! 

Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.

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The NAM is still really concerning for central NC... I just don’t see how we get the snowfall amounts RAH is predicting. Ice? Yes, unfortunately. It’s a good reminder for us that in some of our “bust” events (Jan 2017 for example) the NAM has been pretty spot on with sniffing out the warm nose that greatly degrade snow totals and accumulations. The warm nose forecasted by the NAM here is specifically mentioned in RAH discussion this morning. For central NC I think it’ll come down to observations at this point and how CAD develops, etc.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs.

313528257_ScreenShot2018-12-08at5_55_27AM.png.006c6c38c8aff47fb830fd8de87e6b5d.png

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

@Poimen, I’ve been watching the ICON closely since it did so well last year. It’s slowly gone colder the last three runs and this run is the best yet. 

ICON has come way south with appreciable snow accumulations since yesterday. I'm on my phone but I think it was basically showing nothing for the CLT area yesterday. Good to see

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