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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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I live in Concord near CCharlotte Motor Speedway. I love that these new runs have me right on the 12" line. BUT, I know how this wrx out imby about 75% of the time. If this storm dumps 12" in Concord,  it will be an historic event for December. 

While we have had awesome totals in the past (13", 17", CLT proper had 23" in the Ballantyne area years back.) These totals are once a decade type events.

I hope I see 30". I hope we all Do. But this is my personal take on things regardless of models.

Rain, snow, maybe a slushy 2-4", then sleet,  and LOTS of it. It drives me insane to think about it because 10miles N of me as the crow flies Kannapolis, China Grove will easily be in mostly snow. 

All that to say I literally live in that cursed zone. So I'll keep y'all updated because if I start to see this storm play out snowier, points North and West are gonna get CRUSHED!!

Cheers and Beers to all!

 

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3 hours ago, Wow said:

Yes yes.. rain/snow/ice line dancing around ... And will do so on forecast models until it's actually happening.  I know how this plays out.  The players are set. I'm waiting to nowcast to know my fate.

Mooresville usually fares very well with snow in this set up. 

But the fact that it's barely December worries me a bit. I'm in Concord, my heart is already aching. About 75% of the time I'm on the wrong side of the transition zone. In fact it might actually run through my backyard. Best of luck!

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I used to be good at this before I moved to the sunshine state. I am now back, partly to see snow. My last predictions were way off back about 11 years ago, but before that, I was spot on a lot. I think we can all forgot frz rn. We, meaning, anyone not below the foothills or upstate of SC. So anyone there or north. I do believe that looking at the thicknesses, sleet is going to play a huge part. That can bring down totals. But I do not think the people in SC are going to have a define transition line like they are telling us. So northern Spartanburg or Greenville counties will get about the same amount of snow as middle parts IMO. It may be a small difference, but not much. Unless the track takes a different path. Because to me the small difference in temps at 850 or wet bulb will be met with the velocity of the precip for the more southern folks.

 

Not counting mountain tops, I think the gold spots will start about Weaverville NC to Statesville NC, up to around Boone and Wilkesboro. I think they can expect a solid 18 inches. With locally more or less.

In the Upstate of SC, I think the southern parts of the counties will see 4 inches, and the upper with 10 plus locally. I expect GSP to get around 11 inches of snow with around 6-9 of that measurable. Depending on when the sleet mixes in and what time. How it ends. I am crossing fingers here. And I might be a little snow happy so my totals might need a snow lovers adjustment LOL. GL guys.

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

Not going to buy into that run unless other models follow suit. We are getting to the time now when the higher resolution models will be taking center stage.

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17 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

I think it's because all the thicknesses are too high even all the way up to around Virginia. And every 6 hours, they get better, but not good enough.

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