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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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29 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

I shifted the snow a tad further south due to colder air & a longer duration of snow & sleet, but it still changes to ice Sunday pm. The ice threat keeps going up. #snOMG #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

I'm afraid ice will end up being the big story in the big metro areas of Charlotte and GSP including where I am southeast of Spartanburg. Areas just north of these 2 metros will do very well with snow. If we get this setup in Jan or Feb though, more of us would get snow. 

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30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion).  I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

It was Dec 2000.  In an attempt to not miss out on a Carolina crusher redux, he went all in with huge totals all over the triangle  (I think there was a 12-18"+ band on his call map).  Woke up the next morning to sunny skies and what there was of the storm had skipped over us and was snowing in the coastal plain (and not nearly that much snow).

Ever since then he has been conservative with what he shows on air.

Here is a write up on the storm:

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20001203/

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22 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

if this verifies..new king on the block.

This is really the only model showing me getting more than anything other than some onset stuff before going to all rain. I'm in western pitt county in the 5 inch zone but not far from the 11 inches in Wilson county. In no way do i expect this to be correct but its something that will tarnish the Fv3 when it takes over. Its snowfall outputs will forever be questioned if its wrong. We will no longer be getting nam'd but Fv3'd!!

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I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?

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8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution

Looks like it

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10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?

That trough means business. Thats a 1015 surface low pressure south of Houston now. About 6 hrs or so ahead of schedule I think.

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11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I really think the wx offices are gonna need to accelerate their WSWs.  RAH has a 1am Sunday morning start for the Triad.  Seems much much quicker than that on radar.  I'd bet we see winter conditions spread across the area by 6pm tomorrow.  GFS hinted at it, radar certainly shows it, maybe it nailed the OTS quicker solution!?

There’s a lot of virga out ahead of it and the mid-levels are really dry with the CAD, so it may take awhile for it to reach the ground in the NC Piedmont (which isn’t uncommon with these storms).

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So unusual that all the models are not in alignment at this point. Or at least so far apart with some. The precip now is just gonna be virga, but that is a good. CAD will set up quicker. But could also be a problem with the early precip not heavy, and not forcing the temps down quick enough.

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