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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

You coming up for the historic storm and help him out? 

 

Was and still might have to. Lights went out on the ole 9ft frazier fir in LR tonight. So wifey has a new agenda for me this weekend. 

Sorry for banter. Time for gfs. Your sitting in a sweet spot for this one. Good luck, you where the last poster to make a run at 20 when you hit 19 a few years back. Dont even think snow joe has hit 20 with one storm at 4000 plus feet.

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

For a hint of what may lie ahead in terms of incredible moisture, as of 9 pm CST, here are a few precipitation totals in Texas:

Houston: 2.55" (heavy rain was still falling)
Huntsville: 3.79" (heavy rain was still falling)
Palacios: 3.42"

Great post Don!

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For a hint of what may lie ahead in terms of incredible moisture, as of 9 pm CST, here are a few precipitation totals in Texas:
Houston: 2.55" (heavy rain was still falling)
Huntsville: 3.79" (heavy rain was still falling)
Palacios: 3.42"

It has been nothing but wet this year! Thanks for posting. Those are impressive


.
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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

Sure seems like it’s NAM and the Canadian models against UKMet / GFS / Euro regarding the southern fringe temps and the northern extent of the precip shield - 2 disparate camps 

For what it’s worth ICON has been rock steady as well. 0z still has it CHS to MYR. Heavy snows Greensboro, Winston Salem, Mt Airy and on up into ROA. CLT looks to be a rain sounding if the ICON comes to fruition.

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NWS reasoning for expanding the Winter Storm Watch in Georgia:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
945 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018


.UPDATE...

Main adjustment this evening was to expand the Winter Storm Watch
farther west and south given growing concern for some freezing
rain accumulations in a strengthening wedge Saturday night into
Sunday. This was based on some higher resolution guidance
advecting the subfreezing low level temps/wetbulbs farther into
the area, including the local WRF which has resolved past wedges
quite well. There is still much uncertainty with temps, timing,
and amount of moisture but the fact that models which typically
perform better with the local terrain and smaller scale
microphysical processes are bringing in some freezing rain mainly
north of the I-20 corridor and impinging into the far northeast
Atlanta metro was justification enough to expand. Also even higher
snow totals could be realized in the NE mountains. The watch area
could be upgraded to either a Warning or Advisory in future
updates so please watch for any changes. Previous discussion
follows.
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1 minute ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

While we are in a lull between models, being new to the area, I live in Mooresville. Is that considered NW Piedmont or I85 corridor. Thank you in advance! 

You're NW of the 85 corridor but not "NW piedmont"... that's Taylorsville to Wilkesboro terrain.  We are a part of that iffy area... could be 16", could be 3" with slop.  We'll find out!

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Waynesville tonight was clear and calm, could see stars. Was 40 degrees at 8ish while Cullowhee was overcast and 45 degrees. News trucks were in the Waynesville Lowe's parking lot. They're situated nicely for the next couple days.

My son Tommy is checking out this thread...ready to rumble at WCU!


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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z RGEM Buries Southern and SW VA with 12-20" of Snow 

Funny thing is man the track was fairly similar to 18z, just expanded the snow shield and spread the wealth so to speak. 

If the low traverses near Myrtle and up to Hatteras it’s a perfect track for us. 

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Lots of brining happening on the roads as well for anyone who'd be interested to know. Seems like the cars would wear it off the road before the party begins.

Waynesville tonight was clear and calm, could see stars. Was 40 degrees at 8ish while Cullowhee was overcast and 45 degrees. News trucks were in the Waynesville Lowe's parking lot. They're situated nicely for the next couple days.


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Just caught a few minutes of John and Chris on facebook, pretty much going with what the NAM is showing; 1-4 around 85 (basically mix) all rain a few miles south. A few miles north 4-8, and few more miles north 8-12. Basically if you are NE of a line from Lake Jocassee to Pumpkintown, to Tigerville, to Northern Sptbg you will have a big snow. If you go about 25 miles south you may get nothing but cold rain. Their in house radar also shows Mtn snow starting in the mid morning tomorrow but not until after midnight tomorow for upstate, and then only lasting a few hours. They have all upstate temps rising above freezing by about noon tomorrow, then maybe falling back below for alittle while for northern areas tomorrow night. So quick snow to mix north of 85 going to all rain (take a pic while you can) then maybe some zr sunday night i guess? Huge cutoff with this system, going to be a no show for many, and small even for some and a big even for a few (in the upstate). Must be nice to live in NC! 

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2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Yes we know what the warm nose can do

Without soundings it's hard to know what's going on. Maybe it's an issue with the program indicating sleet when it's actually a snow sounding? I mean it was showing sleet on the maps even over the mountains and we know that's not the case. It still has 8-11" in our neck of the woods. 

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3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Icon is largely unchanged but has quite a bit more snow in NC. Still running.

Yes yes.. rain/snow/ice line dancing around ... And will do so on forecast models until it's actually happening.  I know how this plays out.  The players are set. I'm waiting to nowcast to know my fate.

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