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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Just playing devil's advocate but this would likely be one huge sleet storm for those south of I-40 in NC. That thickness level is conducive for sleet and in CLT I would even bet it would be mixing a lot with ZR. Of course this is just reading this map verbatim so take it with a grain of salt. NAM/RGEM are** going to be a better guide from here on out. 

**Edit - 850's are between 0 and -4 on the Euro, I would feel more comfortable if NC was on top of that 546 line. 

5c0aba38de564.png

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2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

Very interesting. This is our first expererience with it for WW here so we are all interested to see how it does.  

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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks a lot like Feb 2014 Euro Clown map for upstate. This one puts me in the 12-16 range - will never happen. If this were my only piece of info Id go with 1-3 of slush. 

I was thinking the same thing, haha.  I remember the 12-24" clown totals for a lot of us on the eve of that storm (from the Euro and other modeling).  We ended up with 7.5" of SN/IP/ZR where I was, but I know upstate SC got majority jiffed.

I think the NAM identified a warm nose in the 700-850 mb that we ignored and then it happened, IIRC.  The SREF did a good job if I remember right.

I was looking over some 12z NAM soundings over lunch for GSO and noticed a warm nose showing up around 750 mb, so we need to watch that.  That's going to result in lot of sleet that 850 mb maps and clowns do not identify if it occurs. 

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Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

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8 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I was thinking the same thing, haha.  I remember the 12-24" clown totals for a lot of us on the eve of that storm (from the Euro and other modeling).  We ended up with 7.5" of SN/IP/ZR where I was, but I know upstate SC got majority jiffed.

I think the NAM identified a warm nose in the 700-850 mb that we ignored and then it happened, IIRC.  The SREF did a good job if I remember right.

I was looking over some 12z NAM soundings over lunch for GSO and noticed a warm nose showing up around 750 mb, so we need to watch that.  That's going to result in lot of sleet that 850 mb maps and clowns so not identify if it occurs. 

Yes I remember that now. I think NAM was only model showing it and it nailed it! :underthewx:

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

I am very proud of this forum.  After 5 days and 4500 posts, this is the first mention of ground temps.  :)

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1 minute ago, Justicebork said:

I am very proud of this forum.  After 5 days and 4500 posts, this is the first mention of ground temps.  :)

Maybe I should say 2M temps instead of "ground temps" (soil temps). Im a big believer that 2M temps are important no matter what others say. March 09, thunder snow for several hours, crazy rates - never got more than 4 or 4.5 inches b/c 2M temp wouldn't drop below 34. Areas north and east of me where temp was below freezing got a foot or more. 

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Just now, griteater said:

Euro

typPwyM.gif

this run of the euro sure gives hope that there could be quite a bit more snow/sleet in northeast ga than before. Now has precip changing over to all snow for a while down to places like gainesville and hartwell with a mix here before the warm nose aloft moves through. That snow would could help drop temps to freezing earlier by several hours  which could mean more freezing rain, again especially along and north of gainesville to hartwell but that's hard to say yet. 

It's only going to one more small downward temp adjustment aloft to make potentially change things quite a bit...maybe even south of 85. Damn shame though that the warm nose is still there above 850mb....but given precip rates, makes me wonder if sleet will be more expansive.  That said, this should be quite a hit for NEGA, rabun county, and those areas. 

 

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If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link.  It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well.  The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update.  It says the 1z run will update around 3:30

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off

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19 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

My dewpoint is 28 right now

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

this run of the euro sure gives hope that there could be quite a bit more snow/sleet in northeast ga than before. Now has precip changing over to all snow for a while down to places like gainesville and hartwell with a mix here before the warm nose aloft moves through. That snow would could help drop temps to freezing earlier by several hours  which could mean more freezing rain, again especially along and north of gainesville to hartwell but that's hard to say yet. 

It's only going to one more small downward temp adjustment aloft to make potentially change things quite a bit...maybe even south of 85. Damn shame though that the warm nose is still there above 850mb....but given precip rates, makes me wonder if sleet will be more expansive.  That said, this should be quite a hit for NEGA, rabun county, and those areas. 

 

Here in Rabun I am absolutely getting much more confident since last nights and this mornings runs, and hope you are right. But still being cautiously optimistic until I see exactly what our temp and dew point are in the morning. Currently 43 with a dew point of 26. 

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Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, bc it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, but it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.

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