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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I don't think they are garbage.  I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps.  In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.

They are good. But literally only good 3-6 hours out. They will jump all over the place this far out 

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NWS Raleigh just issued a briefing.  Good info.  They have a lot of uncertainty in snow amounts between US1 and 85.  Said that anything north and west of 85 is looking at double digit snow amounts and will stay mostly snow.  Heavier bands of precip will be of the frozen variety for Wake county and when it gets lighter that is when the transition to rain will occur.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The 12Z runs have al nudged the precip back north some which is good for some in VA like me 

@Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! 

Euro looks improved as well!

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13 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

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Just now, Tatamy said:

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania.  We had a snowstorm on 11/15.  Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area.  The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior.  The Mets blew them off.  The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said.  We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office.  On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW.  By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet.  We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”.  The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk.  The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.  

Let's hope we have a similar story. Thanks for the insight!

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