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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42.

It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.

Also kind of doubt the precipitation minimum showing up over NE NC on the Ukie, haven't seen that on many models

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39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right.  Oh how I wish, though.

Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......

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19 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't?

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

FV3 doesnt show sleet. 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......

I would think that with the wedge and heavy snow falling, we'd hover around freezing or just below.  But there's no way the column is going to be that cold.  It will be really interesting if the Euro comes in similar.  But I expect it will tick north, just like the others.

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I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals.  I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. 

I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit...  in southern Wake.

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