Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm. 

 

I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't).  There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across.  Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected.  I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, burgertime said:

For folks along I-85 GSP to CLT as usual it's gonna be a battle between sleet and snow but if we can get just enough cold air those totals could easily be higher. 

I think it will still be some significant totals. I would not be surprised to wring out 8-12" total, based on a blend of all the models right now. My excitement meter is rising fo sho! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top.

Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). 

But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Looking super promising at the moment.  12Z NAM soundings are surprisingly supportive of all snow (no mixing at all during the event).  So then snowfall will be determined by ratios and compaction.

Looking in great position based on the NAM! AVL might be the place to be. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol

You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon   tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. 

I am definitely liking how it looks better this morning, but being on the edge, especially the southern edge, always makes me nervous lol.  it is early December so expectations are tempered (but excitement over the possibilities the models are showing is not tempered).  I have seen it 31 and raining so hard it just never really gets a glaze going.  at least it looks like the chances of the higher ice accumulations are down. I love a good ice storm but like to keep my power on :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here. 

You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). 

But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

 

16 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.

 

Like others, I think that is because the energy is more strung out and further south... Sorry Virginia!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork

I just click on the map in the zoomed-in mode on Pivotal. I'm able to click close to my location in eastern Forsyth. I will say that areas south of 85 in the Triad look to have more sleet than north of 85. It's close. Either way, should be a good storm for all of us int he area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My guess is that the suppression trend is partly tied to this: the trend is for the ULL to "landfall" into Baja California as a more and more positively tilted wave. This positive tilt has ramifications downstream for its orientation, how amp the wave gets, and where some temperature profiles set up because a more negative tilt can raise heights downstream. 

nam3km_z500_vort_wus_fh17_trend.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

This might not be a bad thing.  There's nothing worse than hearing the low hum and explosion of overloaded transformers during an ice storm! ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. 

Yeah,  Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch.  Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...