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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. 

NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies.  Flatter, weaker southern wave.  Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot.  Good stuff.

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12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Wow -- huge surge south of 850 temps vs. 6z run -- about 50 miles south at 30 hours. 

yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly  in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. 

Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. 

Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.

 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. 

If I'm not mistaken the NAM is pretty close to what the GFS FV3 has been showing for a few days now correct?

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5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here.

Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! 

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2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! 

From Highlands to Hendersonville are going to get lambasted.

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8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

upstate to clt back to all snow at 51 with the lp just offshore sc.  mercy.

 

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To Wow's point if you look at hi-res precip type you can see now it's more of a rain/snow battle then flips to sleet for most. I still think this trends colder and you get snow creeping further south. Plus with so much moisture and again thickness right on the edge it should flip it to snow for the most part. 

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