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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

You guys in the Carolina's are looking good... as for me on the border in VA, the QPF keeps heading south... at this point , the storm looks very minimal here... even though the NWS has us getting 12" still

Greensboro is only like 50-60 miles from you and I believe we are getting a ton. I'm sure you will be fine!

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4 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said:

Just FYI, Cranky Weather Guy isn't a meteorologist so take anything they say with a grain of salt. It's been pointed out on this forum before how off base they've been.

Oh okay I didn’t know that. I had seen some others share links to his blog this week was the only reason I had read that last night.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

hr32 and upstate looks to be all snow.

Really looking like it's going to be the "north of 85" special for the upstate. The south trends are encouraging. Hopefully that wedge can get the cold air a little further south to get more upstate SC people in the game!

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18 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

  

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

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2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here.

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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. 

EDIT: 12z version seems flatter?

The s/w is weaker and flatter... This will certainly keep the ice away and make this more rain vs. snow.  Looks more like the GFS in that sense

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3 minutes ago, localyokelweather said:

I agree, the escarpment just off the Great Balsams will be the prime spot for our area. We're pulling our hair out over here trying to nail down where the cutoff line will be from sleet/light snow to heavy snow. A good number of folks in SW NC will be disappointed, more so Macon/Jackson moving southwest, Haywood looks like a lock for a heavy event. 

12Z Nam looks much better for sw NC

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