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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. 

Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. 

 

 

 

fv3_6z_7.png

ggem_0z_7.png

Those both appear to be maps from yesterday, unless I am reading something wrong ?

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get.

I have been very impressed with the FV3.  I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive.  If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO.

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3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

I found out about the site last week as well.  Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well.  Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others.

yeah...it's a great site. By the way...I goofed on that original post. Those are the wrong images. So I deleted and made a new post with the correct images. 

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Just now, mckinnonwg said:

I have been very impressed with the FV3.  I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive.  If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO.

I agree.  However, the proof is how it compares to reality.  It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke.

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Just now, Nraleigh said:

I agree.  However, the proof is how it compares to reality.  It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke.

This storm is a major test for that exact reason.  Personally, hope it verifies.  Maybe some of the extra money we spend on the EURO can be back in our pocket.

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Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain.

 i think it'll go up the closer we get to the event. radar already looking extremely healthy.  that plus the model trends overnight i don't see how they don't. 

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1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south.

Cranky weather guy from twitter mentioned this in his blog yesterday saying that the storm was late to bloom but not late to track. Basically that what was happening out west wouldn’t translate directly to the east coast and in fact he said there might be an inverse reaction where things are wetter over here than expected. But things went south over there not because of more suppression or the low forming way south, but simply because cyclogenesis was later than initially modeled.

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1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said:

Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.

I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area..

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Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal  has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? 

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal  has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? 

Have you viewed the soundings?

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