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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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4 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

Today begins my favorite part of the storm, the nowcasting. We can start comparing the actual storm to model forecasts. Rain has already made it to Huntsville. 

Yep, gonna start putting more emphasis on the short range models as well. Also for CLT to RDU seeing what's happening real time is gonna be crucial. I'm really curious to see if the 12z NAM trends colder..I'm almost willing to bet it does. 

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13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

Well when everyone acknowledges how weenie it is, does it really make you a weenie? I think that's probably a safe bet but I would drop the ZR a little and up the snow. 

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1 minute ago, wxduncan said:

Do you guys think this will continue to trend south? If so would that put the foothills out of the 12-18 forecasted and move it to CLT?

Foothills and mountains very much still in play. Just because it moved south doesn't man the bullseye moves south with it if the cold air doesn't do it's thing. WNC is still in the best position right now. 

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22 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models.  Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown.   

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Those maps still paint an obvious picture of the trend of snow totals moving south across the models.  Amounts aren’t a big deal but when CLT is moving into the jackpot of the clown maps it’s just as crazy to say they see 10% snow as it is to say they see the clown totals being shown.   

Well. That’s why they are callled clown maps. Lol. 

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3 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said:

Haven't seen much discussion of N GA based on the overnight runs.  Is ATL pretty much out of the woods as far as significant ice?  I'm guessing maybe a dusting on Monday on the back end might happen, but nothing more?

I think we are going to see mostly rain and maybe a slight possibility like you are saying on the back end of the event.  Models have been very consistent regarding the wedge from the NE.  The 850 tropical temps are going to keep it an all rain event for ATL.  The NE portion of GA is where the action will occur and that is even being discussed as minimal impacts.  The area we need to monitor will be early monday morning to monday night.  That time frame is still uncertain with the short range models just now bringing it into frame.

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1 hour ago, burgertime said:

I think FV3 seeing ALL precip as snow. Has close to 3 inches of QPF for most of that 30 inch area...850's look pretty good. So cut the actual snow ratio down a bit and you're still at like 12-20 inches if that were to verify. 

What if it is correct? I see all the models trending south, hence, this has to mean the cold air is stronger/dryer? I would think this has to bode well for us snow hounds?

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With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED!

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. 

Yea just as others say cut the snow maps in half I assume half the QPF as well as models overdo QPF many times.  Somewhere will get it but it’s never as widespread as modeled. 

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4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The FV-3 is another whopper for western NC. The Kuchera map is insane again. Obviously, this model may have a problem with its qpf output, as it seems to be higher than others, though the EC/GGEM aren't far behind. 

Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? 

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16 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED!

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc. 

 

Here is base reflectivity as well

https://weather.us/radar-us/usa/20181207-124600z.html

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. 

Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. 

 

 

 

fv3_6z_7.png

ggem_0z_7.png

I found out about the site last week as well.  Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well.  Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others.

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