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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Both Old and New GFS continues the trend south... also the new 06z GEFS follows south into NC , waving back at VA saying see you another time.

James,

6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

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1819787941_ScreenShot2018-12-07at6_19_16AM.thumb.png.b50339f011f52736b955070fb038778a.png

 

GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. 

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Just now, PackWxMan said:

1819787941_ScreenShot2018-12-07at6_19_16AM.thumb.png.b50339f011f52736b955070fb038778a.png

 

GFS and Euro ENS side by side. They have been fairly locked in for 48hours now. Then you have the NAM, which is north, leaves RDU to CLT with rain mostly. If the NAM didn't do so well last year then Id be planning on sunday sledding routines right now here in Raleigh. 

Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon

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 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

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40 minutes ago, burgertime said:

By the way here is the 6z RGEM snowfall map out to hour 54

 

 

5c0a531705493.png

Good sign for us folks living on a razors edge that the RGEM is already showing the same totals or more here as NAM out to only 54 hours.  If the GFS and others trend just a little further south and get the Meck Union county line into the bullseye area I’ll feel a lot more comfortable that we at least end up with more than 1 or 2 inches of snow and a lot of ice.  I’ve said it a few times before, it can pay off being this close if we end up on the right side of that dividing line.  Here’s to hoping!

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4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

 I will still put a $10 bill on the table and confidently say: This is sleet and frz rain Meck to Wake county. Snow totals of magnitude confined to W and NW NC. CLT and RAH will see snow, but sharing an FV3 map is as weenie as it comes. 60%sleet/30%frz rain/10%snow CLT and Rah.

There is no doubt that ice will be a significant problem in these areas. However, northern Wake could see a good period of snow before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain. 

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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That NAM snowfall map posted above only goes through 1 PM Sunday.  Lots of QPF left after that time.

Thanks for posting that. Didn’t catch it when first looked at map. 

I’m 57 and I don’t ever remember seeing a storm of this size this early in the season. WOW

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someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it.  it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point

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