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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

.Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a
moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico
Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate to heavy precipitation will
fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
region. Accumulations are expected to be greatest in western
North Carolina.

NCZ035-502-504-506-071730-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0005.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Kings Creek, Lenoir,
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese,
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood
420 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to
  18 inches expected.

* WHERE...Alexander, Greater Caldwell, Greater Burke and Eastern
  McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Road conditions could deteriorate as early as
  Saturday evening, with highway travel continuing to be impacted
  through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a
  half mile during periods of heavy snow. Widespread, prolonged
  power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.
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For RDU folks, the 6z NAM was an improvement (maybe). The 0z had almost all of Wake in the 2" range (kuchera). You had to get into Chatham and northern Durham to see anything approaching 5". The 6z NAM pushes the 5-6" snows into northern Wake over into all of Durham. Funny but a little less in south central Chatham. Looks a little more south to north with the ranges compared to the 0z with its west to east cutoff zones. Dealing with freezing rain, looks like warning criteria ice for everybody; but it is less (lots of .5" totals compared to last run with over .80"). Also there was a shift east and south of the freezing rain. Folks in Johnson and Harnett counties would get warning criteria amounts. 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Man, the trend overnight and this morning are really taking the moisture away from VA.... starting to get a little concerned my way of getting hardly anything. 

The 6z GFS has nothing past the VA/NC boarder. Big drop in total precip and coverage. I was about to post the snow map but I'm having issues uploading. 

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RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest.

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13 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest.

This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 

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5 hours ago, wxduncan said:

My bad for some reason I thought you was down in Rutherford county below me.

Edit: Still think we are both fine unless something drastic happens in our 48 hour less window before go time.

Im the one one that lives down in Rutherford County. Use to have a few others inhere but they have left.

 

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From WPC

 

Quote

Guidance has trended southward this morning in response to a stronger and drier high pressure to the north wedging down along the eastern side of the Appalachians. SW flow aloft will transport increasing moisture on WAA and intense isentropic upglide, causing precipitation to overspread the region from south to north early Saturday, and persisting through Monday morning. Initially, precipitation may all be freezing rain/sleet, but intensifying frontogenesis will cause dynamic cooling of the column changing the precip over to snow in the terrain of SC/NC and points north towards WV. A prolonged period of heavy snow is likely in this area, and WPC probabilities show a high risk for 8 inches of snow, with a moderate risk for 12 or more. South and east of the maximum area of snow, a sharp gradient is likely where the 850-700mb warm nose greater than 0C lifts northward. The mean flow is easterly, which is not as robust as a more typical SE wind to erode the wedge to permit warm nose advection into the area. Additionally, diabatic cooling due to precipitation falling into the wedge will likely reinforce or intensify that feature, causing an increase in the pressure gradient, and a southward push of colder air due to isallobaric acceleration. This suggests heavy snow is likely into the upstate of SC, and eastward towards the Triangle of NC, as well as approaching the Coastal Plain of SE VA late on Day 3. Here, WPC probabilities are moderate for 4 inches. Well north, into WV and KY, confidence is lower due to the southern trend in guidance and the dry air which will be tough to overcome, so WPC probabilities are lower for heavy snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 

Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. 

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This is gonna be one of those "one city over" heartbreakers where you'll see a big dividing line between like 2 inches of compacted sleet snow and a foot of snow that next city over. I'm really interested to see if the NAM trends colder. I have a feeling it's picking up that cold air press in Canada. We're starting to get into good sampling range. RGEM should really be paid attention for that reason. 

Yeah.  What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models.  More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor.  Lots of boom or bust potential with this one.  I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early.  I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column.  They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again. 

Don't worry, average temp here during the winter is around 40 degrees with rain almost every day and when it does get cold and there's moisture it's usually 33 and rain. I've seen one good snow here and it only stayed on the ground for like 1 day. Got so cold the canals froze over and couldn't get any moisture. Every winter I get triggered with flashbacks :wacko2:

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Just now, packfan98 said:

Yeah.  What usually happens in this situations is that the surface temps trend colder with the CAD but the warm nose becomes more apparent on the hi-res models.  More people end up with a higher impact event due with more fzrn and sleet, but the big totals don't come to fruition in the I-85 corridor.  Lots of boom or bust potential with this one.  I can't believe the NWS offices are going so high with totals this early.  I believe I would have went with 1-2, 2-4, and ease on up after looking at the column.  They are the experts and get things right most of the time, but this one will be interesting.

Because it's driven by easterly winds the warm nose won't be as big of a factor according to WPC. So this really could paste you guys for once. 

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