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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ok good deal.  Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft?

Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes  is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch  real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you  get  a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose.

So you want deny the warmnose but if you can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes  is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch  real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you  get  a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose.

So you want deny the warmnose but ifbyou can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up.

Yep, good post.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

.5 moisture makes it to VA state line thats it :lol:

 

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Wow that is a huge shift south on the 0z GFS...

I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.

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8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident".  Someone re-posted it yesterday.  If I knew how, I would re-post it again.  It should be required reading before one can post on here.

I posted it, it’s below as well.  Difference being then the models showed us getting hammered and they whiffed.  Even showing big totals day of the storm.  Not the same as this storm as there’s ALOT of time left.  Point being when I posted it for people to remember where we live and how imperfect these models are.  They can whiff the other way as well and us get more snow than they show, it’s just not as common.  

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.

Look at heading of the wave more east ots as oppossed to NE trying to turn,bend.

Wasnt their an oldtimer rule a wave enetering west coast always exited same longitude east coast most times. Beleive this one came in San Diego/ LA area

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