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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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4 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH just wrote a book!


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

...A significant winter storm is expected Sat night through Mon; 
a winter storm watch is being issued for the NW Piedmont...

Overview for Sat-Mon: A significant wintertime storm for NC is 
growing more likely with every model run. Differences among the 
models regarding timing, track, precip amounts, and the vertical 
thermal structure and advection patterns persist, which makes it 
challenging to pinpoint the details, but the models are coming into 
better agreement now. It's very likely that parts of central NC, 
primarily N and W of the Triangle, will see several inches of snow, 
at least, along with some icing. Lesser (but still impactful) 
accumulations of ice and snow are expected at some point of the 
event over all but the far SE.

Or as the rest of us call it, the Triad.  :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

They're showing more for Salisbury than atop Mt. Mitchell. 

I'm sorry, but there is no on this earth that I am going to buy into that map right now.

Oh I agree, just pointing out that the expected map makes no sense when you factor in all the other product maps they put out with it.  And that’s the only reasoning I could think of, which makes sense when you look at the disco about QPF and sleet SW of Asheville.  Seems like their reasoning is banks on snow being rate driven given the thermal profile.

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GSP is discounting the NAM’s thermal profiles:

 

 

“The NAM is substantially warmer with temps aloft than

any of the global models we have at our disposal. For now the NAM

profiles are being discounted and not used in the fcst process,

not only due to the consensus in the other guidance, but to help

maintain better forecast continuity”

 

Also, they are thinking the mountains are going to see a larger percentage of the precip fall as sleet:

 

“"Snow" totals have declined by

a few inches over the northern GA/SC zones and in the more western

NC mtns, as more of the QPF is now expected to fall as sleet.”

 

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The NAM is a raging sleetstorm for many with the big warm nose. Thats why the kuchera maps look so much different than the one brick posted..

Once that warm nose makes an appearance for the RDU area, I've learned to count on it.  It's usually worse than modeled.  I'm not saying that's the case for this storm but I've found that mostly true for past storms.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.

It almost seems like the current shift leader said "I am yanking the towel out from under the other shift". Kinda weird how they went from one extreme to another. There is still enough time for changes with the model runs. Hmmm...

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now.

Neither is Allen Huffman. GSP went too aggressive this morning then went the other way this afternoon to lower

expectations. But if you look at there high end snow map to low end snow map, see below, you can see they are covering everything

and just went super conservative

SnowAmt10Prcntl.png

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

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