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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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6 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change

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50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. 

I agree.

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.

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Just now, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.

thanks Don!  you da man!

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19 minutes ago, Shane said:

Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change

Agree 100%. I live in Burlington and I've seen the transition line setup so many times quite literally in a line from just south of Graham and over towards Mebane and Efland more times than not. And to the point of not grouping us with RDU. Yesterday I left RDU for home and witnessed a 7degree temp drop and arrived to snow/graupel flurries.

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