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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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6 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

It’s powered by the tears of snow weenies - gotta stock up before it goes live in January. A marvel of modern engineering, really.

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To be fair in terms of QPF the fv3 more closely matches the ukmet and cmc on the 12z data
The eps at 0z had 2 inches of QPF all the way into northern foothills. So at this time the consensus is for more QPF than gfs/nam that could change but as of now no trend


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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Out of everything I've seen so far on the 12z Data, what concerns me the most is the reduction in the GEFS

We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo. 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The total qpf went down quite a bit on the GEFS. That's why the snow mean went down. 

06z vs. 12z

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_22.png

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_21.png

Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far.

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

I would say the NAM usually does a good job with mid-level thermals with these systems, there's a chance it's on to something.  We've all been burned by those warm noses many times...

I would agree but the big reason for the differences isn't really because of a warm nose from the south. It's because the initial air mass is significantly warmer because of the high placement and timing.

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Well, at 72 hours I guess I would call it similar to yesterday's 12z run. 850 temps are pretty close (a little lower in Upstate/extreme NE GA, a little higher east of Charlotte).

Surface low is ENE of yesterday's 12z position, but the low placements have been wonky with the transfer to hard to tell. 

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