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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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32 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I grew up in Fayetteville. I have seen my share of good snow. I only point out what the models are doing.  You know the truth. Sorry if that crushes your dreams. 

You pick and choose when you post well.   Can you enlighten me/us all on your thoughts.  Paid METs aren’t jumping one way or the other but you jump to rain as often as possible.  If you know what’s going to happen exactly then post a map. If not then switch to the banter or sanitarium posts!  Sorry but weeding through the bs posts is getting old.

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now. 

The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning.  The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event.  If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow.  If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north 

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Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

I've used it for a very long time, has some goof info on the site.

I agree.  It does a very good job with the various forms of data and comparisons as well.  I also have noticed that various sites have different outcomes with the same models.  So it's also interesting to cross compare sites.  Interesting stuff.

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Just now, jjwxman said:

Geez... The FV3 looks AWESOME.  But the 12z NAM definitely took the air out of the room.  #NAM'd

 

Brad P.’s video this morning says it all to me.  Might not be blockbuster for the weenies but you can’t jump ship model to model.  To be honest I’m hoping for minimal effects. I need to work prior to the old man coming down the chimney!

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM seems to be playing hard what the main issue is with this event since the beginning.  The high timing is 24 hours late for wedging and is generally too far north to ensure a true southern frozen event.  If this system was 24 hours slower this is a massive winter storm down to Macon and most of NC is likely snow.  If the high is 200 miles south this is all snow for most of northern AL and GA and north 

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

Think the NAM will correct course or is this the trend?

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