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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Just now, burgertime said:

Here's how the precip looks....Also is anyone using the 18z and 6z runs of the Euro? Just wondering how they stack up to the NAM. 

 

 

 

5c08c0626aad0.png

Ouch. Getting close to being a whiff here. We still get .75 to 1 inch qpf but its trending south. Nothing as close Lynchburg

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Just now, Rankin5150 said:

It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 

Just outside of it. Can't emphasise enough though that no one should be focusing on absolute totals right now. Long ways to go before we figure out winners or losers with these huge totals being shown. Verbatim the Euro was big ice storm for CLT...but wisdom says there would be more snow for a lot of NC. Need to see the Bufkit data. 

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Snow maps are big, but the Euro temps aloft are sketchy.  Not sure whether you go with synoptic climatology and say that there will be more dynamic cooling on the NW side of the low, or if you say that the pre-storm airmass aloft is just marginal so the starting point is too warm.

Big, closed 850 low tracks from northern Louisiana to Pawley's Island, SC.  That's pretty much textbook for the Charlotte area and north.  If you look back at tonight's CMC run, it has what I would envision to see on the NW side of the 850mb low track, and that is dynamical cooling and heavy snow.  The snow maps are picking up on the snow, but without having a sounding, it's hard to tell what's going on there.  My guess is that it's just isothermal where the column is close to freezing as you go up a good distance.

Anyway, the UKMet, Euro, and GFS have the exact same idea for the storm at the moment.

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1 hour ago, Rankin5150 said:

Grit, 

I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup?  I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! 

 

The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969

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Is this because they are not situated in a CAD favored area? Interesting...
Thanks for all you do Grit! 

CAD actually warms the other side of the Apps. We’re all familiar with how cold, dense air “piles up” on our side, creating CAD. However, on the Tennessee side, there’s all of the sudden much less air making it over the mountain, which lowers air pressure (why you see an inverted trough here) and ultimately warms the area.
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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What's the WxBell map look like?

Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.

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Just now, ILMRoss said:


CAD actually warms the other side of the Apps. We’re all familiar with how cold, dense air “piles up” on our side, creating CAD. However, on the Tennessee side, there’s all of the sudden much less air making it over the mountain, which lowers air pressure (why you see an inverted trough here) and ultimately warms the area.

WOW! Thank you sir. That is very informative. I never knew the implications. It is crazy how everything in weather seems to have an equal but opposite reaction. Thanks again!

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.

Yeah, I’m down to 12-14”, not liking the downward spiral trends! :(

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I’m down to 12-14”, not liking the downward spiral trends! :(

Looking at weather.us it looks like we start as rain, we wet bulb several hours later and a raging SN/IP/ZR storm ensues. Looks like mostly IP but it’s some really heavy stuff. Epic epic sleet storm 

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17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.

Meh as good or better from me to Mack...steady as she goes for the Euro

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34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I’m down to 12-14”, not liking the downward spiral trends! :(

Greenville County was definitely actually one of the counties with the least change in the upstate. On the Kuchera maps Greenville county probably ranges from around 2 inches at the south to just over 12 to the north near the NC border. Much bigger changes to your east towards Charlotte and West and South of you.

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3 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Meh as good or better from me to Mack...steady as she goes for the Euro

Not according to the Kuchera maps on WxBell unless they're off for some reason. At 12z all of Oconee county had 2+ inches to near a foot near the border. Tonight the southern 3rd of Oconee County has less than 1 inch to around 8 inches right at the NC line. I'm not saying this is a trend in the wrong direction, it was just a single run with noticeably more warmth at the upper levels. I'm pulling for you to score big though, cause after all I'm sitting only 1 county to your west. 

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