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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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49 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC.  Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them.  Read the thread below and temper expectations.  Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close.  

The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust.  Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right.  Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted.  QPF was also way overdone by the models  

Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right.

Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!

 

2D003D9A-B2D6-421A-978A-3E9DBD4EF375.png

This is why I ALWAYS get more excited when we have overrunning with shortwaves dropping down to provide some ULL action. I am curious if anyone has any data on how much the areas OUTSIDE of the mountains have fared with Miller A storms? 

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FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

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Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in.  You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough.  The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast.  Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days

HR8XS98.gif

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way.

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3 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.

Agree 100%. A trend would be over all models (or most) for a couple of time periods for me as well.

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5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south

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2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way.

I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.

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Just now, griteater said:

We are living on the edge in the southern piedmont as of now...ideally, we'd certainly want everything farther south

Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150.  Think it would be better up that way for snow?

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.

Oh I got ya. I don't know why I thought you were in Athens. :lol:

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