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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said:

One thing to remember is that front end thump of snow will only serve to lock in CAD. Thats why I'm particularly worried about icing in areas where that warm nose reaches and don't quite buy some of the modeling that wants to scour out the subfreezing temperatures Sunday

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It’s had to get the air to warm when it’s cold and cloudy and snow on the ground. 

To give you and example last Sunday while many on here were enjoying a mild day in 60’s we in Surry County were stuck at 50-52 with fog. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Kuchera Maps this run have a 25” lollipop right over Gastonia this run 

The Gastonia/Shelby area normally does really well in these situations.  They’re in the perfect location for CAD as far south as they are.  When it retreats around here and CLT, it normally goes west and leaves them in the CAD before retreating north.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re one of the big winners from this storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

It’s had to get the air to warm when it’s cold and cloudy and snow on the ground. 

To give you and example last Sunday while many on here were enjoying a mild day in 60’s we in Surry County were stuck at 50-52 with fog. 

 

He’s referring to the WAA.  2M temps could easily get locked in and support sleet or freezing rain bc the upper air won’t support snow anymore.  Always a concern in these parts. 

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35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH

Noticed that also he is being very careful bc next line he said is this line could shift and give people in Mauldin simpsonville fountain inn 3 to 6 but he got burned severely couple years back and he will not budge off that 85 corridor 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us.....

It might go ENE for one more frame.  I guess we'll never know. :(

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While we wait for the GFS to process all of this snow I know many were worried about the Canadian with its more amped warmer solution.  Its ensembles are much more enthused. Mean showed surface low going from New Orleans to Tallahassee then off the coast between Jacksonville, FL, and Savannah to about 100mi SE of Wilmington. 850 low moves from Northern MS to Northern Ga, then off the coast between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Here is the mean snowfall and this is using the Kuchera method. Looks a lot better than Operational.

gemsnowmaps.png

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