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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

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1 minute ago, Amos83 said:

One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

Yup, seen that finger many times in these events. I wouldn’t be shocked to see timing sped up on this thing. 

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4 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

I’ve seen it come in 8-10 hours early ! Since I think the arrival time was around 4-6 pm around GSP, this would start it in the morning and not have any chance to warm Saturday! Could really help a lot, 2-4 degrees can make a monumental difference!

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. 

Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase.   Something will throw curveballs.  I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns.  Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.

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1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase.   Something will throw curveballs.  I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns.  Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.

I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 

Could also aid moisture transport (not that it’s really needed in this setup) if you have a positive tilt to it.  But those things are a nowcast issue.

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34 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Well...well...well....but big caveat here this is all dependent on enough cold air for snow. If you believe Euro at face value this would be raging ZR/IP storm. 

5c08164d65fca.png

The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought.  The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there.  Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Yeah, that's definitely not a favorite feature of mine.  I'm not sure why it's doing that either.  When the moisture comes from the south, the mountains shouldn't have the effect that they do when it comes from the west or northwest.

I've always thought the south mountains always helped with lift I could be wrong...

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The only question here appears to be what will the temps be during the event. I think the CAD could end up being stronger than modeled here, which would give us more frozen precip. I don't think it will be all snow, but will mix at times with sleet and freezing rain, but I could see it end up being more frozen precip than rain. A degree or two can make all the difference, as well as where exactly you are located when it comes to Wake County.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought.  The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there.  Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does

I live in Athens ga all local Mets on tv are saying is rain and possibly extreme northeast  ga mountains could see winter mix 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought.  The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there.  Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does

I've seen many times places like Atlanta/Athens/Columbia/Pee Dee of SC have to catch up on freezing rain in these events. 

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

The only question here appears to be what will the temps be during the event. I think the CAD could end up being stronger than modeled here, which would give us more frozen precip. I don't think it will be all snow, but will mix at times with sleet and freezing rain, but I could see it end up being more frozen precip than rain. A degree or two can make all the difference, as well as where exactly you are located when it comes to Wake County.

These storms are always why I am happy to be close to the Wake/Franklin line.  Always seems we do well.   Mixed bag for us for sure @Brick Tamland going off what I’ve seen so far.  I think it’s going to be a mess here by Monday.  

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