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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Take your chances with that. I think you still end up with a sleet/snow profile...what no one wants is ZR. If that warm nose sets up shop (and it almost always does) that will not be good for CLT. 

agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited.

Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For RDU folks, this was a better run. As currently modeled, the farther west and north from Raleigh the better. **If it's right I barely stay all snow through the event. I've seen this too many time. 

Agreed, I've seen it way too many times.  If every model run from now until the event was like this, I'd definitely expect major mixing.  Usually if the mixing is that close, you can take it to the bank for my area.

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Good for the mountain communities today, that's gonna be a heckuva lot more than an inch or two for Boone at those rates.  A hot streak in December for the ski resorts!

Educational question - what model(s) are incorporated into the Bufkit product?  Just one run or multiple runs?  Curious how frequently those get updated and if we get a drastic shift in the models in the next day or two, if the shift will be as equally drastic in the Bufkit product or if it will be averaged out over time?

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. 

I think I'd be much more worried if it was the UKMET. 

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6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

now that is the kiss of death, will never forget when he popped in the jan 2017 thread and fired the warning shot.

The crusher of hopes and dreams lol.  These big storms are always hard to start and stay all snow for us, even growing up around Hickory you’d have some sleet and then a glaze of freezing rain to end.  My issue the past few storms at my place besides the sleet has been terrible dendrite  growth.  Everyone will be talking about big fat flakes and I’ll be getting hit with dime size or smaller.

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9 minutes ago, Poimen said:

A close up view of the GFS with Kuchera method: 

 

That would be absolutely insane, even given the last few years. A gradient of almost zero in Rock Hill to 2 feet in Mooresville is surely unprecedented. Fortunately, I'll be up in Denver for "early in-law Christmas" on Sunday. Although, I guess I could get stuck there...

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. 

I agree, as long as it didn't have any "erroneous" issues it's another possible outcome. 

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6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. 

1000% agree.  If this was Friday I might throw it out but still too far out to throw any solutions out.

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