Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said:

TOUCHE! I agree!! I would take an OVERRUNNING setup any day over phased. 

Yep it's too many moving parts. This has to be the toughest place in the country along the I85 corridor to forecast winter weather. Most of the time you just don't know what you'll get until it's falling.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, griteater said:

I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas)

I thought the same thing...especially given the NAM bias in CAD setups anyways. I haven't looked at the Euro but if that's what the Euro looks like then people have a right to be excited. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Man, there was some terrible Euro analysis last night. If you're going to stay up that late, at least get it right. 

Couple observations:

1) EE rule is in effect. For newbies, the NAM used to be called the ETA. The EE rule is that if the Euro and the ETA are in agreement, take it to the bank

2) This also reminds me of the "Larry Cosgrove" storm from about 10 years ago (strongwx/QueenCityWx/Lookout/HKY and others will remember) when he came on the boards and pooh poohed those who argued that the models were underforecasting the CAD based on the position of the high. Needless to say, he hasn't been back to the board since and the entire southeast was crippled.

3) I'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere.

4) Wish I was still up there to be in the thick of things!

Sure do Skip! Good times!

26 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms. 

So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. 

17 minutes ago, beanskip said:

12z NAM surface low position at 0z Sunday (84 hours) almost right on top of 0z Euro position at the same time (96 hours) -- both over the south-central La. coast. 

EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.

No ignorance, that has been hinted at more than once the last two days

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere.

 

Storm of the Century?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Sure do Skip! Good times!

So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. 

EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man! 

I remember when this happened with LC. EPIC! Robert (Foothills) OWNED that storm! He killed it. His warnings helped me prepare TREMENDOUSLY. Great times with all of you guys. I remember a lot of you from the WWB!! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some significant icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia. This is not a good setup for RDU to CLT for snow, unfortunately. I'm sure those areas could see a couple inches courtesy of frontend overrunning isentropic banding or on the backend via the upper low/PJ energy dropping in behind the storm. But they will struggle mightily with the Sleet/ZR/plain Jane rain mixing in. I'm still not sold the sleet/zr will not reach into the Foothills, either. I've seen these setups too many times. SLP track will be critical for those areas.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.

If I am not mistaken, the models (or a couple of them) is already showing this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, HKY_WX said:

To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia.

Me and my wife are already talking about going to the Mountains this weekend! If things keep trending in this direction, I am going to load up the 4WD and head that way! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Watch your Buffkit data....  

The lines are already being drawn.

As of the morning runs:

GSO, INT, HKY snow.

All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas.

 

6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.

Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip.

But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track.  For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC.  That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario).  Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft).  Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Watch your Buffkit data....  

The lines are already being drawn.

As of the morning runs:

GSO, INT, HKY snow.

All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas.

 

I'm 15 miles south of Greensboro, I have already prepared myself for a sleet fest. Just like in the January 2017 storm. In Randleman we had 4-5" of snow/sleet. In Pleasant Garden, 10 miles to my north they had 10-11" of all snow.  Preparing myself for a similar outcome. :weep:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...