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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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8 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

We need to stop living and dying by each model run. A variety of solutions are on the table and it’s impossible to nail this far out . Long way to go before anybody reels anything in. 

If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. 

I’m just looking for “ trends” the NAM has the strongest of any high pressures modeled! If we’re dependent on stronger high , to get colder wedge and temps , on a borderline airmass already, not much room for a weakening trend!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I’m just looking for “ trends” the NAM has the strongest of any high pressures modeled! If we’re dependent on stronger high , to get colder wedge and temps , on a borderline airmass already, not much room for a weakening trend!

True. I'm hoping the next model runs start to lean towards it's depiction. 

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Long time avid reader and first question ever on this AWESOME forum.  My question for you weather experts is this (I Hope it's not confusing as I am still learning) - I understand that the NAM does a much better job at predicting and forecasting CAD events much better than global models.  My question is however, does the NAM do well with forecasting where the actual location of the HP will be, or only if the HP is actually there then it determines the strength of the wedge.  Virtually as the event is closer is it actually better to watch the NAM as a higher resolution model that doesn't do well with actual forecasting of where that High will be orrrrrrrrr watch the global models position of that HP and then go with the NAM's thermal profile?  Make sense?  Either way, been a great time following this forum and this HUGEEEE Winter Weather Threat   

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2 minutes ago, Nraleigh said:

I live in Raleigh, what is your opinion for Raleigh?

We always live on the edge. As always there's going to be transition lines running through Wake County. I think if the GFS(s)/euro are right, we're looking at some front end snow changing to rain, and then back to a little snow. Honestly I would think a few inches at best (messy). If the NAMs depiction of the CAD is right, I think we still mix but it wont be plain rain. More sleet and freezing rain, which would end up a significant storm for us.  

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4 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Long time avid reader and first question ever on this AWESOME forum.  My question for you weather experts is this (I Hope it's not confusing as I am still learning) - I understand that the NAM does a much better job at predicting and forecasting CAD events much better than global models.  My question is however, does the NAM do well with forecasting where the actual location of the HP will be, or only if the HP is actually there then it determines the strength of the wedge.  Virtually as the event is closer is it actually better to watch the NAM as a higher resolution model that doesn't do well with actual forecasting of where that High will be orrrrrrrrr watch the global models position of that HP and then go with the NAM's thermal profile?  Make sense?  Either way, been a great time following this forum and this HUGEEEE Winter Weather Threat   

IMO, it doesn't generally do a good job predicting where things will be at 84 hours; however in this case, it appears to line up pretty well with the Euro at 84 hrs.

Because it somewhat matches the Euro at 5h, you can use the NAM's high scale resolution to get a more accurate prediction on surface temps/dew points, rain/snow/freezing lines if the Euro scenario plays out.

 

At least that's my weenie take on it...

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

IMO, it doesn't generally do a good job predicting where things will be at 84 hours; however in this case, it appears to line up pretty well with the Euro at 84 hrs.

Because it somewhat matches the Euro at 5h, you can use the NAM's high scale resolution to get a more accurate prediction on surface temps/dew points, rain/snow/freezing lines if the Euro scenario plays out.

 

At least that's my weenie take on it...

Forgot about the old "EE rule" -- it's in effect!

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Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. 

In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

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22 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. 

I tend to agree...that's a really good look to me on the NAM at 84...but it's NAM at 84. My bigger worry with this is always IF in early December that can over take the 925 temps. Seems to always screw folks from around GSO south. 

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7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. 

In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

lol...amen. 

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Thank you for that, matt. Also my pet peeve. 

Mine too...probably my top one.  I understand it if someone is a noob but what's frustrating is you see people who have been around long enough to know better do it.  

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4 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. 

In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

This +1000

 

We are still a little over 3 days from the storm hitting, models are going to continue to oscillate north and south a bit for a while still. Ensembles are still the way to go this far out and they look nice for a very large portion of us. Breath people, you'd think some that have been on here for years would learn their lesson by now.

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