Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WidreMann said:

Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs.

Yea to lend credence to your statement the damn thing has been all over the place and is out of touch with some of the other guidance. It’s def a plausible scenario at this point however. Main takeaway is it distances itself from the continuation of adjusting south like other guidance did earlier. I can’t same I really trust the ICON for whatever reason. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png

Dang Canadian is almost a carbon copy of the GFS track wise although 850s are def colder comparing it to GFS. I feel like this is what the nam would look like if it had the capability to run this far out and show a fair depiction of where the winter weather would set up. 

Still a hell of a setup for a winter storm for almost all of NC, at least front end wise. Nothing to be grumpy about imo. No 30” totals but still for early December standards take it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, No snow for you said:

We have a cold rain for GSP according to GFS. Hopefully it is model issue with the CAD and not a sign to come. 

I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png

canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

People need to relax. These movements are noise. Canadian came south and GFS has foot+ totals in WNC. 

It’s rasy to say when your sitting in a spot that a bad run only gets you a foot! Everyone on the edges, don’t have much wiggle room for N shifts or noise!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s rasy to say when your sitting in a spot that a bad run only gets you a foot! Everyone on the edges, don’t have much wiggle room for N shifts or noise!

You should have learned from experience not to get your hopes up in first place, when you're sitting in those areas. Lol. :P

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite.

The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see.  Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas.  If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. 

canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. 

I'll take that bet. Living in upstate SC for 30 years can make one quite the pessimist. I've even come up with my own formula to determine snow amounts. Take whatever is being modeled/forecasted and cut it in half. Take that total and cut it in half again. Whatever is remaining from that total, assume at least 1" of it will be either sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Be happy if what's left of the total is snow.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see.  Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas.  If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash. 

 

I would ride the V3, it's been solid IMO, and even the 18z "old" GFS had some wonky stuff, too

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...