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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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4 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Living in the Greenville SC area I also remember maybe 3 years ago we were super close to a modeled huge storm. Gsp even mentioned 12" possible for Greenville. We ended up with maybe an inch of slush after all the cold rain and mixing. Crossing my fingers that this one gives us something decent! 

Feb 2014. Local Mets calling for 8-12, with one or two going 8-14. Euro showing 14-18 at go time. Warm nose. Sleetfest. ZR. 3 inches max!

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1 hour ago, WeatherNC said:

Somewhere along a line from Charlottesville to Asheville, I am currently looking at the area around Sparta.  Still have to Friday to hammer down specifics. I did order a new snow shovel on Amazon, professional grade.

Maybe I should rent our bedroom...I can offer IPAs and my wife's amazing shrimp and grits with cheddar and bacon :)  Anyway...love the tracking here...it's all about the joy of the chase

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JB tonight's thought!! 

Just a note here to say I have not changed from the idea of a track inside Hatteras to the bench mark and if course that would also be a big city snow threat, This is likely to be a shut down storm for a few days in southern Va into western and central NC But when I look at this see this coming, And 24 horus later, I think the feedback fairy, who is well known, is playing with the model

More further back, I play this game all the time

But what of the euro so far south

we all remember its problems with the 2016 storm .. right up to the day before the storm,dont know it will get all the way back to this but it may be in between where it is now to the south and this or not!!

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18z FV3 and 0z NAM are fairly similar in regards to low placement at 84 on nam and 90 on fv3 respectively. Precip is much more expansive on the northern side of the system however on nam, noticeably for TX and OK. If that continued to translate that would be good for the northern areas of the board to ensure the precip would make it this far north. But yes for a board as a whole overall, you have to love the evolution of the low placement.

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1 minute ago, WeatherHawk said:

Maybe I should rent our bedroom...I can offer IPAs and my wife's amazing shrimp and grits with cheddar and bacon :)  Anyway...love the tracking here...it's all about the joy of the chase

I am willing to rent a bedroom here for the price of having to shovel our sidewalk, which stretches onto 2 bordering streets... Last time I had to my back was left feeling like a coal miners after years working in the caves.

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14 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

Living in the Greenville SC area I also remember maybe 3 years ago we were super close to a modeled huge storm. Gsp even mentioned 12" possible for Greenville. We ended up with maybe an inch of slush after all the cold rain and mixing. Crossing my fingers that this one gives us something 

A "storm" that will live in infamy around these parts and one I will remember forever. Biggest forcast fail I can remember for this area. Even Chris Justus and John C were on air on WYFF for that day guaranteeing 8-12" of snow. Then we end up with sleet and freezing rain.

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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

JB tonight's thought!! 

Just a note here to say I have not changed from the idea of a track inside Hatteras to the bench mark and if course that would also be a big city snow threat, This is likely to be a shut down storm for a few days in southern Va into western and central NC But when I look at this see this coming, And 24 horus later, I think the feedback fairy, who is well known, is playing with the model

Ahh, JB's kiss of death for NC and VA. 

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Two things: 

1. Just because a low is jumping around doesn't make a model run unrealistic. Lows are going to jump to where the combination of vertical lift and low level spin are maximized. 

2. 18z GFS FV3 was a pretty cool run. Caught a wide swath of people with significant snow. Seemed like a pretty reasonable run, as far as dynamics go. Let's hope that continues.

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1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

A "storm" that will live in infamy around these parts and one I will remember forever. Biggest forcast fail I can remember for this area. Even Chris Justus and John C were on air on WYFF for that day guaranteeing 8-12" of snow. Then we end up with sleet and freezing rain.

They both nailed the forecast in WNC when IIRC, Jason Boyer was very conservative. However, I think that storm is where Chris became really gun shy of the I-85 corridor and still is today. 

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Saw a met on twitter post a blurb from the Norman, Oklahoma forecast discussion noting that they were concerned about forecasting dewpoints and wet bulbs too high because the airmass may not moderate as much as expected due to snowpack. I know high strength and placement is more important here but if the airmass is slightly colder than expected that can only help things.

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17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Two things: 

1. Just because a low is jumping around doesn't make a model run unrealistic. Lows are going to jump to where the combination of vertical lift and low level spin are maximized. 

2. 18z GFS FV3 was a pretty cool run. Caught a wide swath of people with significant snow. Seemed like a pretty reasonable run, as far as dynamics go. Let's hope that continues.

Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics  better than its twin?

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Might we expect the FV3 to handle dynamics  better than its twin?

Blah, wish I could give you a straight up answer. Perhaps? Someone posted verification scores for all the models a few days ago which showed the FV3 was verifying slightly more accurately than the GFS. Based on that, maybe, but this is a question above my pay grade.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

The one good thing is this thing cant really bust for me.....I would be sweating bullets if I was in the spots showing 12-24" every run.....we had a similar storm forecast down here a few years back, run after run of the Euro and GFS giving us 12-20" in central and eastern NC on the clown maps.....ended up with 3" of sleet......better to expect rain or a slushy 1-2" and get a foot than think your getting the big dog and ending up with tons of sleet.

Seriously though if the cold can trend stronger the track should trend flatter and then snow totals would climb in central and eastern NC.....seeing some signs of that on the NAMS etc but still several days to go to hash it out. 

Good to see you posting Downeastnc. 

I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us.  Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.

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18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks.  It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north.  The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras.  That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC

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