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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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EPS Mean compare from 06z to 12z....at 500mb it had the same slight changes as the op run (good changes for upstate into central NC).  It has the northern stream phasing in late a bit.  Sfc low track is similar but a little closer to the coast off the Carolinas.  Initially it was a little warmer thru Bama into TN and colder in the Carolinas (more damming), but it was a little warmer in eastern and central NC as the low went off the Carolina coast.

This is a textbook look at 500mb for snow in upstate into central NC (and to the NW) when the wave is in central Texas in this kind of setup

H7oJJKM.png

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume)

iMJW2n8.png

Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked!

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4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked!

Yep prepare for the worst (or best!) there now and see where it goes

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Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

Control run did show around 10" for Wake.  The EPS Mean was a lot lower.

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run...  THEN the map is posted.
Do y'all know where Wake is?  That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category.

Euro control run.  It basically has 10+ totals over Wake.  More west.  Regular Euro kills us with WAA.

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load.  Here's the Kuchera output through 144.  Umm...

Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen.

image.thumb.png.d52cea79ac6166c3879824c9988d4a66.png

It's track is faster/farther west than the others..hence the difference. 

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10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

No one can prepare for 2' except local municipalities off the lakes lol.

A few years ago I went up to Snowshoe, West Virginia for the 3 foot blizzard that also hit DC (was something to behold), plan on being in Boone/Banner Elk this weekend. Had never been in snow like that before, One of those things I will remember forever.

 

tb5aP52.jpg

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9 minutes ago, cwick20 said:

Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better.

Yea I'm not gonna worry yet..if the higher res models start showing it after tomorrow I will start worrying. Right now I'm in the "cad not being modeled correctly" camp

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