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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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1 minute ago, Cheers for Western Ears said:

Grit, would you feel safe saying the mtns around boone/ashe could see over a foot realistically? Also are Temps a concern based off the latest models? 

Boone / Ashe look great right now, certainly better than yesterday.  You have plenty of wiggle room with temps up there.  Given the strong southern wave moving slowly scenario, this has the potential to be right up there with some of the big ones...but see the 48hr rule in my signature below...models will continue to change

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4 minutes ago, MillerA said:

Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet:

Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1070024504171212800?s=09

 

Given its early December p-type is gonna be crucial...like Allan said The mountains might be the only lock right now for all snow. Be skeptical of these runs until you get into NAM territory....or don't and enjoy the weenie party haha.

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

Any idea when this will become apparent?  I'm guessing we have to wait until the storm is unfolding to know for sure??

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

Any idea when this will become apparent?  I'm guessing we have to wait until the storm is unfolding to know for sure??

Oh yeah, I think it makes sense to have less confidence with what happens in the northern stream from Canada into the Great Lakes and the Northeast than we do with the southern wave.  The damming high is a feather in the cap even if the source region is less than ideal

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

Yea, that vort dropping down from Canada on the Euro was super strong this time.  Vort's change up there pretty wildly from run to run, and I think that's where most of our variance is coming from in the ensembles. 

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

The high in the plains/NE, has been consistently getting stronger on most modeling the last few runs!? Was around 1035/6 and now 1039/40!

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7 minutes ago, griteater said:

IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival.  I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength

Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast.  I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch.  Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still.  What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence?  

Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way...

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast.  I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch.  Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still.  What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence?  

Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way...

Thank you, yeah burrel mentioned it....the last few runs of the Euro (and EPS) have been increasing the strength of a shortwave that drops into the Great Lakes just ahead of our storm wave....we want that to be fairly strong and drop in so that the heights along the east coast don't have a chance to lift north.  I would assume the better shortwave trends thru the Great Lakes is stemming from increased ridging in W Canada, but I haven't looked

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