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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.

for someone who has spent my entire life in Upstate, SC....it's all about that H. Is it going to be strong enough to funnel cold air on the East side of the mountains to our area? It is impossible for people who have never lived here...to understand how much those mountains affect our weather. 

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5 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

I find it hard to believe on FV3 the HP is in a perfect spot for All the CAD areas to score here. What am I missing?

The one thing you can argue is the High itself is rather weak. Although it can change, if if was up into the 1040's or so, there would be a noticeable difference.

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8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It’s all rain here, no maps you need to see

I know everyone is focused on snow  but even the fv3 has surface temps near  or below freezing for a lot of the storm in the northern upstate. And that is not taking into consideration it's warm bias with cad. I think the icing potential in the upstate is quite high. 

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

I know everyone is focused on snow  but even the fv3 has surface temps near  or below freezing for a lot of the storm in the northern upstate. And that is not taking into consideration it's warm bias with cad. I think the icing potential in the upstate is quite high. 

I agree    :(     

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Just now, wncsnow said:

It is suppressed not even getting much moisture into Southern VA and not near as much as other models into the triangle 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2018120412_138_480_220.png

Thanks.  It'll be interesting to see how far east it gets with the snow line.  I expect the precip will be farther north than that.  I'm much more concerned about the cold air.

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Although max snow totals went down on GEFS, the snow coverage expanded quite a bit in all directions. A number of GEFS members have nudged south and west with snow totals. At 6z there were only around 6-7 members showing snow of at least an inch getting into most of N GA, and at 12z there are now 11-12. And the mean shows that with mean snowfall going up a bit across all of N GA and deeper into SC and nudging east towards the coast in NC. Yet another sign of models maybe starting to see stronger cold air transport.

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Although max snow totals went down on GEFS, the snow coverage expanded quite a bit in all directions. A number of GEFS members have nudged south and west with snow totals. At 6z there were only around 6-7 members showing snow of at least an inch getting into most of N GA, and at 12z there are now 11-12. And the mean shows that with mean snowfall going up a bit across all of N GA and deeper into SC and nudging east towards the coast in NC. Yet another sign of models maybe starting to see stronger cold air transport.

Maybe picking up on damming better?

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