Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

Bear in mind that in years past, a reduction of at least 50 percent in the clown maps ends up closer to reality around here. But even with that, there is still a reasonable shot of a widespread 6-12" storm for some on this board (if things remain as they are). Those numbers also seem much more realistic and in line with past events. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses?
Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out.  I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Someone help me remember, but isn't the NAM really good at picking up on CAD and/or warm noses?
Seems that the system in January 2017 was a big bust for a lot of folks and the NAM was the first to really sniff it out.  I'd start looking at the NAM closely in days to come, at least with regards to thermal profiles.

That's what I remember as well (in particular to Jan 2017 also)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake.  I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need.  Borderline = rain.

I agree. I'm not buying the GEFS nor EPS means for Wake/Johnston area one bit. We will be looking at an inch of slop with heavy cold rain after that. I need to keep those maps to compare to on Monday. Seen it dozens of times before. Dearth of the -NAO the last few years makes it all dependent on timing in our area of NC so that the cold air and precip get here in unison. There's nothing to lock the cold air in and that doesn't work out 99% of the time for us. LP needs to track further SE. We are too far East for the CAD to save us.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I fully believe these totals. The qpf will be there and is modeled by every model. qpf is the last thing we have to worry about with this one. Its all about the thermal profiles, surprising I know. So if you get a snow sounding, your gonna hit the lottery. Conventional wisdom tells all of us to shrug it off, to good to be true and I get that. But all you gotta do at your location is get the sounding and your Gold on this one.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, NCSNOW said:

I fully believe these totals. The qpf will be there and is modeled by every model. qpf is the last thing we have to worry about with this one. Its all about the thermal profiles, surprising I know. So if you get a snow sounding, your gonna hit the lottery. Conventional wisdom tells all of us to shrug it off, to good to be true and I get that. But all you gotta do at your location is get the sounding and your Gold on this one.

We need the surface temps colder. 32/33 with heavy snow will provide 5/6 to 1 ratios.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm thinking the CAD is being extremely under modeled at this point.  Most of the globals have our high in near perfect position.  I think we will see the Hi-Res models paint a different picture with regards to sleet/freezing rain once they get in range.

As a general rule, you can normally shave 4 or 5 degrees off whatever the GFS is showing in this time range in a CAD setup. If you do that for this storm it's a devastating ice storm all the way down to Lookouts house.  The GFS is already showing some ice to that point as it is.

 

I agree 100%.  The dewpoint on the NAM at 84 is 10-20 degrees cooler than the GFS.  Now we all know the NAM past 48 hours can be a crap shoot, but these numbers are probably not all that off.

 image.thumb.png.027c364604eae7a46653851b30049adf.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Think before you speak, most if not all models this morning are trending better for many across the board, and the ensemble members are amazing for most.

Cold air has trended weaker, storm more north, and people are starting to consider the NAM model outside of 48 hours. It is desperation time. 

  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...