ozmaea Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What loops is thatSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If anyone has any ointment, you might want to start looking for flies. Climo says no, history says no. I wont bet against those two ever when something this unprecedented comes along. We dont get historic, Sierra Nevada snows in December with marginal temps, 48 hour duration and uncannily perfect timing of two systems. It just.doesnt.happen. So where's that fly? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ozmaea said: What loops is that Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 0z GFS simulated radar, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 During times of tracking winter storms, I seem to lose sleep looking at weather models.... man it's worth it though! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 30-36 hours of pink in the upstate; is that sleet or zr? Anyone have the zr map from this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: During times of tracking winter storms, I seem to lose sleep looking at weather models.... man it's worth it though! Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wouldn't be surprised if the FV3 comes in a little colder since it's been trending that way vs. the GFS. This will be a good test to see if we truly have an improved model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments Or better, when you have to wait for the EURO.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Remember folks, if the gradient isn't running through the heart of Wake County, then you can toss that snowmap. It's not verifying. I almost said this exact same thing. When I saw the the gradient running through Wake County I said this will verify...LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, SimeonNC said: Verbatim, CLT gets shut down for the rest of December. I am VERY worried about the zr. That on top of 14"+ of WET snow. It will be damage unlike we have seen since Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Holy hell...a view of upper level divergence for the ages on that GFS run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: I am VERY worried about the zr. That on top of 14"+ of WET snow. It will be damage unlike we have seen since Hugo. You could come to my house, I only get a trace of ice and an inch and a half of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 0Z GEFS Snowfall Mean Increasing Again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Holy hell...a view of upper level divergence for the ages on that GFS run Moisture transport would be stupid with that look across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 43 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: A thought on this... There's a lot of convective feedback off the coast here... Look at the pattern of the pressure contours! I think the models are going to have a LOT of trouble with this, especially the GFS, which seemed especially prone to botching this kind of stuff during our early January storm this past winter. This screwy representation has a lot of implications, especially with moisture transport. Check out how dry NC is here! I think we trend wetter in this particular instance, especially once convection allowing models get in the game. I got 5" from that storm so no complaints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: I jumped ship too early... Whoops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: 0Z GEFS Snowfall Mean Increasing Again! Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 23 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: If anyone has any ointment, you might want to start looking for flies. Climo says no, history says no. I wont bet against those two ever when something this unprecedented comes along. We dont get historic, Sierra Nevada snows in December with marginal temps, 48 hour duration and uncannily perfect timing of two systems. It just.doesnt.happen. So where's that fly? It’s not on shore yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now. Yes, I agree. I was just looking at that myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Thanks. Way down for the upstate unfortunately, moved north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now. It nudged north on the GEFS Mean (the track / temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now. Yes, the 0z GFS ensemble did go north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like ENC is going to get an epic dose of...cold rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s not on shore yet! That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality. Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Oh well. Just when the GFS comes colder/south the GEFS go North Afraid the 6z GFS will follow North next but who knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 is another bombs away! Helped by a 1034 HP sitting up top in Lake Placid NY. Big run for VA/NC the damn thing stalls between 138-150. This is going to be some prolific snowfall totals on this run good lord!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yep FV3 has be very consistent for at least 2 days . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Yep FV3 has be very consistent for at least 2 days . You’d have to think with the banana high setup and a 1037 up in northern New England the cad would most likely be underdone at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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