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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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No idea what thread to post this looking at the sub forum but ummm did any of you look at the 0z NAM? I have family in SJ. This could be a pretty big deal. Do you have a Feb 20 thread? I didn’t see it.

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8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

No idea what thread to post this looking at the sub forum but ummm did any of you look at the 0z NAM? I have family in SJ. This could be a pretty big deal. Do you have a Feb 20 thread? I didn’t see it.

We've been noticing it, lol. It's raining here, one thing at a time you know. Iceman can get right back on the horse tomorrow and start a thread.

  • Haha 1

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7 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Near identical gradient with every storm an eye popping repetitive winter pattern

1483788631_snku_acc.us_ma(1).thumb.png.57f4b8a1f2742c7e9a281f5f14dde407.png

You should let it run to 0z at least, you're still getting frozen at 18z. But I know what you mean.

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4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

You should let it run to 0z at least, you're still getting frozen at 18z. But I know what you mean.

Change over most likely quicker than shown, near identical to the last event and models never had a clue to how little frozen would fall.

 

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19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The soon to be retired old GFS the only model with a clue last storm 

 

gfs_asnowd_neus_14.png

Don’t think it does well sniffing out CAD at this range. We will know in about 60 hours or so.

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Fields out here are looking like swamps!  How much more rain can the ground stand? Hope we really do get a drier weather pattern before planting season.

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Wednesday pm rush is going to be a nightmare. Hopefully a better forecast will lead to a better situation than November. 

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2 hours ago, penndotguy said:

About 20 minutes of sleet last night, then rain with temps holding at 33 all night current temp 37. Snow and ice Wednesday then near 50 Thursday

I didn't have any sleet but a period of mod super wet snow which coated the sides of the road

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1 hour ago, J.P. said:

Wednesday pm rush is going to be a nightmare. Hopefully a better forecast will lead to a better situation than November. 

Yep, super bad timing for drivers if the moderate stuff starts to come down in the 4pm+ range. Laying down brine beforehand would be key...  

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3 hours ago, Lady Di said:

Fields out here are looking like swamps!  How much more rain can the ground stand? Hope we really do get a drier weather pattern before planting season.

That's because it is a swamp this year, most of SJ to be fair is swamp area... The rain is off the charts and I don't see this pattern ending any time soon. Most storms end in rain and this will be no different...

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Seems like we're looking at a similar setup as last week.  Maybe a bit colder, more substantial CAD, with the high rooted deeper in NE.  Maybe we'll get a decent thump before all the sleet and ice.. 

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Just got a Winter Storm Watch, what's up with that?  Another 180 on model output today?  It's going to rain after it snows.  Not sure how that will meet any storm criteria? 

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Winter Storm Watch in effect here from Wednesday morning thru Wednesday night for 3-5" of snow and a light glaze of ice.

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Just now, Lady Di said:

Just got a Winter Storm Watch, what's up with that?  Another 180 on model output today?  It going to rain after it snows.  Not sure how that will meet any storm criteria? 

Driving will be very hazardous during morning rush for you folks in the Delaware Valley and probably evening rush. At least a couple inches of snow will then change to sleet and/or freezing rain. You will not see much “regular” rain at all.

Thursday will be warmer but it will take a while.

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36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Driving will be very hazardous during morning rush for you folks in the Delaware Valley and probably evening rush. At least a couple inches of snow will then change to sleet and/or freezing rain. You will not see much “regular” rain at all.

Thursday will be warmer but it will take a while.

Not really supposed to get in here till after the am rush, pm will be a different story.

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Well last night went from snow to sleet to nightmare. Woke up and all windows were covered in ice.....trees.....roads...etc. Ground was cold so it took until noon for the few moments of sun to ease the pain of getting out of the elevations. Decent icing event for sure.  Kids tried walking around outside and it was like a skating rink along the driveway and road.

Of course the ride down to the tunnel on the PA TPK was spent dodging sheets of flying ice from cars and trucks.  

As for the next event....saw the watches go up.....I will believe it when the snow is piling up on the cabin cam.

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Ralph's unicorn at the end of meteorological winter lol, i really want this to happen it would be hilarious specially because it would be rain in Monmouth

 

 

image.png.db9e041653424d64ff625c4a3704a273.png

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ralph's unicorn at the end of meteorological winter lol, i really want this to happen it would be hilarious specially because it would be rain in Monmouth

 

 

image.png.db9e041653424d64ff625c4a3704a273.png

Gfs has something similar.  

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Early spring 2018 redux hot tub time machine

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

That's Phila. Flower Show week.  Always tends to be some sort of weather drama during that time (either just before or during). :lol:   For a few years, they were running it the last week of February and kept running into snow storms so they moved it to March and it has been hit or miss.  This year it is starting a bit "earlier" in March and.... :P

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