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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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UKIE ups the ante 7-10" now SE PA (more N and W and central). Some of that is sleet. Significantly colder and weaker with primary almost comes darn close to wanting to transfer South of the region lol.

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39 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

Old Eskimos are saying the sun is rising in a different spot now.

Remember that in the news a few years ago but just some senile men spinning yarns. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

UKIE ups the ante 7-10" now SE PA (more N and W and central). Some of that is sleet. Significantly colder and weaker with primary almost comes darn close to wanting to transfer South of the region lol.

Ukie has been consistently wrong all winter

 

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euro is similar to the gfs, high is in a great position for us but temps don't translate YET. I expect as we get closer, if that high remains in that spot, temps will trend down. Right now it's gfs/eurp vs uk/cmc however I'd take a blend of the 2 right now. 2-4" over to sleet to light rain. 

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GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month.

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month.

Nicely put....plenty of threats once the epic unicorn pattern arrives next weekend but doesn't mean we win every time. Blocking up top and ridge bridge looks off the charts. MJO and tanking SOI support it.

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No coverage here of the 12z ECM? Funny thing is I was in the MA thread and it was sounding like a train wreck so i tuned out, turns out it's pretty good for this region.

 

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29 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Why do these looke so different 

7588AC0E-84D3-42F9-8E4D-BBC3CDCF4EE8.png

It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2"

Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W.

 

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2"

Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W.

 

Even with 1-2 added is still not right. Shows 3 in quakertown on one map an over 6 on other. So per your map im getting over 3 from monday morning event? Highly unlikely 

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Red Winged Blackbirds are back. Earliest I have ever recorded. They came back early last February but not this early. Winter is over? 

March 2014, they endured 3 significant snows and cold so maybe not. 

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I’m chasing snow. Thinking Vermont next weekend and Colorado week after. May not do Vermont if a cutter next weekend. Don’t need to to drive 7 hours to see rain. Last school ski trip to Poconos Sunday. Even up there, not much natural snow this year. 

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1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said:

I’m chasing snow. Thinking Vermont next weekend and Colorado week after. May not do Vermont if a cutter next weekend. Don’t need to to drive 7 hours to see rain. Last school ski trip to Poconos Sunday. Even up there, not much natural snow this year. 

If you go to VT go north.  Mt Mansfield did great this January, they nearly hit 100" on the stake but the rains have probably lessened the pack over the past few days.  Colorado looks real nice a week or two from now.

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5 minutes ago, famartin said:

Something in central NJ has been running warm for the past few days...

Sounds like a riddle, lol. (Hey Ray!). You should stop over in the other thread and re-educate us on sleet if you have a minute.

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The following weeks storm/setup is getting better and better 2018 redux beginning and I still am with last years sentiment late winter action is lame. I experienced the most March snow in my life last winter and it meant little to me i can't even recall the events because all they did was melt.

 

 

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21 hours ago, penndotguy said:

That must be awesome out there, Carson Pass, California

I think we all need a field trip out west after this winter.  The Northern Oregon volcanoes (Mt Hood/Mt Jefferson) are looking at 90+ inches of snow in the next 240hrs according to the GFS.  

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

0z euro - the storm that was a cutter a couple days ago is now a southern slider this weekend

 

 

And the storm the euro had pounding us with snow and sleet is doing nothing outside my window attm after showing a disastrous morning rush hour for days on end. 

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While everyone is focused on current obs thread, who hacked the FV3? Has no less than 6 snow chances over next 2 weeks. A MECS, 3 SECS, and 2 minor 'events'. That would work for getting to N or AN snowfall that many forecasted at the start of the season. Even tho that would be a bust for me I have fingers crossed this verifies as I enjoy taking my children out to sled snowtube etc. Plus I enjoy tracking etc.

Aside from that weenie run, first things first....all guidance has upper level energy riding underneath our region this weekend with models mixed between a hit here and a slider just South. Good spot for now. In the back of my head I wont lie, there are thoughts of "I wonder if the seasonal trend will be at play here with the Mid Atlantic being the bullseye again and our area fringed?". The rich get richer type thing. But it's a couple days early to specify how far S the energy tracks.

Active times ahead!

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