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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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12 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Winter hasn’t even started yet....

C'mon Haz, you've been around long enough to know how this works -- the first week of Dec is already in the books and we haven't had a dozen KU events yet! Time to pull the plug on winter and label it a "bust". ;)

Current 28F. I'm taking advantage of today's blow torch to get outside and put up Christmas lights. 

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I remember this time last month reading how great things were looking for December so I take these "great pattern is coming in 3 weeks" posts with a grain of salt. It was a good read though.

NAO is raging positive, higher than what was projected to be. Ensembles not showing it going negative any time soon either. AO is positive as well and the models are all over the place after it dips slightly negative next week. No real consensus. The Pacific doesn't look too bad but until the Atlantic looks to get in line, I will be skeptical of these epic pattern calls. Yeah it looks seasonably cold but also progressive. Don't see it being much different than the period we just had. Cool and dry.. warm up before synoptic system then repeat. But with cold near by we can get lucky. Wouldnt be expecting anything more than advisory events though. Don't want to sound like a negative Nancy but I think expectations should be tempered until the Atlantic looks a hell of a lot better. 

 

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3 hours ago, Newman said:

These snow showers are pretty nice right now. Snow sticking to everything with how cold it is:

Capture.PNG.8b08fb1bb10d20be345f2cb62a623722.PNG

Saw snow piles in Quakertown yesterday impressive to still have them around for two weeks this time of the year that might b a first.

 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Saw snow piles in Quakertown yesterday impressive to still have them around for two weeks this time of the year that might b a first.

 

Saw a small one in Hatfield yesterday as well. I was going to turn around and take a picture but I focused and gained control of myself before I looked like a complete loser...

34F,  on and off flurries 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I remember this time last month reading how great things were looking for December so I take these "great pattern is coming in 3 weeks" posts with a grain of salt. It was a good read though.

NAO is raging positive, higher than what was projected to be. Ensembles not showing it going negative any time soon either. AO is positive as well and the models are all over the place after it dips slightly negative next week. No real consensus. The Pacific doesn't look too bad but until the Atlantic looks to get in line, I will be skeptical of these epic pattern calls. Yeah it looks seasonably cold but also progressive. Don't see it being much different than the period we just had. Cool and dry.. warm up before synoptic system then repeat. But with cold near by we can get lucky. Wouldnt be expecting anything more than advisory events though. Don't want to sound like a negative Nancy but I think expectations should be tempered until the Atlantic looks a hell of a lot better. 

 

Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol. 

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28 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Saw a small one in Hatfield yesterday as well. I was going to turn around and take a picture but I focused and gained control of myself before I looked like a complete loser...

34F,  on and off flurries 

Lolol - was it about 12" diameter? No snow piles here, still have a couple of thin patches of snow in the shade from Wednesday, when I had fantasy visions of it being added to this weekend.

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35 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lolol - was it about 12" diameter? No snow piles here, still have a couple of thin patches of snow in the shade from Wednesday, when I had fantasy visions of it being added to this weekend.

Probably  2' x 1' x 4"....instead of a Charlie Brown Xmas tree it was a Charlie Brown snow pile.

Really sucks we couldn't get a nice storm/tracking event this weekend. That, along w/the Eagles/Dallas game tomorrow and it's the holiday season...would've be pretty cool.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol. 

You have issues.  Perhaps you’re the troll?  

Your comment about it not being a great winter when it wasn’t even winter yet is soooo far off base it isn’t even funny.  All forecasts called for a mainly back loaded winter.  Give it a rest.  You are amateur  like all of us.  

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4 hours ago, hazwoper said:

You have issues.  Perhaps you’re the troll?  

Your comment about it not being a great winter when it wasn’t even winter yet is soooo far off base it isn’t even funny.  All forecasts called for a mainly back loaded winter.  Give it a rest.  You are amateur  like all of us.  

Dude seriously chill out.  What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol. 

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The trough is back in the east by the 23rd. The GOAK trough will retrograde west to the Aleutians, build the ridge west with it, and dump the trough into the east, aided by the MJO, AAM, and a more favorable NP Jet.

 gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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Looks like I took a wrong turn into the NYC forum... One bust on a threat that was never ours to begin December with and we are at each other's throats?... surprising, what's not surprising is our pattern woes... and how much I saved on car insurance! 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dude seriously chill out.  What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol. 

Don’t call people trolls, Ralphie.  Perhaps you should chill out.  I’ve been a member of this forum for at least as long as you.  Don’t give me this is MET winter.  You know as well as anyone on this forum that large scale winter storms are almost never in the cards in mid Dec.  But, hey, let’s not let facts get in the way.  I’ve already seen 5 inches here through today.  

 

2CF3627E-7157-422F-B31F-A72A047BE8D7.png

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I think everyone should be more concerned about the severe flooding potential by next weekend and the chance of seeing a rare t- storm in December with the possibility of more damaging straight line winds.  The snow discussion can wait later. One thing at a time. The flooding potential is extremely high as the soils are frozen and completely saturated now and any heavy rainfall will runoff and flood the smaller streams immediately as they are already still at high. Mt. Holly will be playing this situation up big time in their discussion by the Thursday with flood watches going up. 

 

1208-006.png

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12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I think everyone should be more concerned about the severe flooding potential by next weekend and the chance of seeing a rare t- storm in December with the possibility of more damaging straight line winds.  The snow discussion can wait later. One thing at a time. The flooding potential is extremely high as the soils are frozen and completely saturated now and any heavy rainfall will runoff and flood the smaller streams immediately as they are already still at high. Mt. Holly will be playing this situation up big time in their discussion by the Thursday with flood watches going up. 

 

1208-006.png

Yeah, I saw this... I hope it busts my basement has been a perpetual mud pit since the thaw this spring.  

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Currently outside and if I didn't know any better I would think some sort of snow/frz precip is moving in with the overcast skies, 25F temp and calm winds. It just looks like snow will fall........nope, depressing.

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The Christmas time period is really intriguing me. Let's see how this looks a week from now. IMO we don't need high latitude blocking. In fact I'd much rather ride with a -EPO and +PNA. The key piece once we get towards the 20th is how the vortex in the NP acts. If it continues to sit in the GOAK then warmer temperatures will be much more likely than if it retrogrades west into the Bering Strait.

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

Also, I'm hearing plenty of talk about the possible SSW that may take place towards the end of December and January. I'd like to caution that, if the SSW event does indeed come to fruition, it may not be a good thing. If the vortex gets displaced towards the Asian side of the pole, we may be wondering why we were jumping up and down for the event to take place in the first place. Also, the SSW may interrupt the entire evolution of our winter. I feel we are entering winter with plenty of upside already without a SSW. I'd take my chances rolling through winter without any stratospheric warming. Of course it could always help but, like I said, I'd rather hedge on the side of caution.

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This cold wave is over performing now were not forecast to get mild until Thursday. Should have substantial negative departures for the first half of the month when the mild period arrives, if it ever gets here but looks like it will. Cold should return by Christmas almost certainly will be a below normal month so kudos to those calling for a cold December i didn't expect it. Better get some snow then or what a waste. 

 

 

 

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I think the best shot of snow will be the parade of clippers that follow this upcoming synoptic system on thursday. Currently they are too far north, but something to watch in coming days. We can do pretty decent in clippers if we get a good track.

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51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think the best shot of snow will be the parade of clippers that follow this upcoming synoptic system on thursday. Currently they are too far north, but something to watch in coming days. We can do pretty decent in clippers if we get a good track.

Yeah a high ratio clipper is better than a glancing coastal imo. Easier to forecast too. 

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New eps weeklies a complete disaster. Trough holds off from coming east through Jan 15th. Of course now that they don't look good, people say they suck and should be thrown out :lol: :lol:

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^^That would track with most of the winter outlooks I read.

Dec would be the "mild" month. It hasn't been so up to this point (but our pattern relax is knocking at the door).

Jan is the transition month, but when? Early/late? 2004-05 was a good winter around here, but we punted the first half of Jan with a mild pattern. Even 2002-03 (a year many are using as an analog) didn't feature a great Jan. We had some clippers, but it was mainly cold and dry. I remember looking at the bare ground and thinking we were wasting all our cold. Fortunately we scored big in Feb and now we all remember that winter fondly.

Patience Iceman! I'm still not concerned with where we're headed. Even our best winters have uneventful stretches. If the Nino were collapsing or we were seeing a consolidated vortex over the pole, then I'd be concerned. Can this winter still fail? Sure. Maybe were due for a repeat of 72-73 or 79-80. But I'll start worrying about that after the New Year.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

New eps weeklies a complete disaster. Trough holds off from coming east through Jan 15th. Of course now that they don't look good, people say they suck and should be thrown out :lol: :lol:

The weeklies both camps have struggled mightily....I remain confident we are in for a cold Jan-Feb period - of course relaxation and warmth between cold - but the cold will never be too far behind - even our brief warm up this weekend will not last as long as thought a couple weeks back. Keep the faith!

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5 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

The weeklies both camps have struggled mightily....I remain confident we are in for a cold Jan-Feb period - of course relaxation and warmth between cold - but the cold will never be too far behind - even our brief warm up this weekend will not last as long as thought a couple weeks back. Keep the faith!

I mean, based on the OP's  and ENS seemingly delaying the trough in the LR for a week now, I feel it has some merit. Was more a mention towards a pattern change occurring towards the end of the month is extremely unlikely. I know folks(including me) will be hoping for it to be here be Xmas but with each day it's looking more and more unlikely. My point with the weeklies is that it will be closer to mid possibly late january before the trough actually arrives imo. 

 

I also am worried that once it arrives, it doesn't have staying power. We get a 2-3 week period that is a great set up but where we need to score before the pattern shifts back... overall punting almost half of winter is a risky proposition. Sometimes it works out and  we get crushed, but other times we rely on that 2-3 week period and get skunked like the past 2-3 weeks. I'm big on patterns establishing themselves in fall and early winter, and right now the pattern of the NAO being dominantly positive with small brief dips into negative is not a good thing imo

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