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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yeah I have been past there.  Whenever they used to have the reservist monthly practices, a convoy of copters used to fly overhead on their way from and back there.

They don't use those jeeps anymore.  Hummers (HMMWVs) rule the day (although they are trying to replace them all)! :lol:

Yeah, no doubt.

When I first saw the jeep the show M*A*S*H came to mind...

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Folks in northern DE, Delco and Chesco really need to be rooting for the 12k NAM to verity. Gives a sliver of hope for something big. Reading the MA thread and there is a definite north trend underway. Not sure it will be enough to save us. Getting 2-3” while Dover gets 12” is going to be hard to swallow. 

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Yeah, no doubt.

When I first saw the jeep the show M*A*S*H came to mind...

One of my favorite shows! :thumbsup:

As cold as it was this morning, that guy had to be numb (although those trucks do come with tops but i guess he wanted to show off the gun turret). lol

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Seems like if the storm can slow down a bit it allows for the confluence above is to move out and everything slides north. Not a ton but really all we need is a good 30 miles or so. Long shot but who knows. 

The current radar looks pretty impressive and here is a Gulf fetch there. 

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6 minutes ago, bluehens said:

Seems like if the storm can slow down a bit it allows for the confluence above is to move out and everything slides north. Not a ton but really all we need is a good 30 miles or so. Long shot but who knows. 

The current radar looks pretty impressive and here is a Gulf fetch there. 

Being in DE you're not in bad shape at all compared to us to the N...

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22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Being in DE you're not in bad shape at all compared to us to the N...

I am only a couple miles south of the PA line at Delco. I am as far up in DE as you can go. But yes for this storm I am in better shape. 

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It's extremely rare to get some rain and have that strong an airmass push south and immediately get heavy snow into it, something that was more common a century ago. AS bad as the regular GFS is one has to go with seasonal trend and another southern slider i hope i'm wrong.

 

 
 

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I've often wondered what's the most snow we could get from one storm in SE PA? Even PDII flipped to IP for a time. Despite how cold it was at the surface, there was warming aloft from a prolonged easterly fetch. If I recall correctly, the blizzard of '96 was all snow (at least here in central Montco).

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2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I've often wondered what's the most snow we could get from one storm in SE PA? Even PDII flipped to IP for a time. Despite how cold it was at the surface, there was warming aloft from a prolonged easterly fetch. If I recall correctly, the blizzard of '96 was all snow (at least here in central Montco).

I guess anything is possible with the right setup although the chance may be .0000001%... 

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The temperature gradient would be other-worldly. Temps are below zero to the single digits with heavy heavy snow. The gradient would do that. I would expect that ice you see is either snow or rain. Even if 850s were trying to warm the rates would be absolutely insane. Inland you would expect ratios to be probably higher than 10:1 with those temps. 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png

fv3p_T2m_neus_35.png

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Now for the you think you have seen everything before in winter, especially after the above extravaganza, the ol' GFS spits this one out :yikes:

Seems like an interesting weather pattern is afoot

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

Lol, that's completely screwed up...funny but screwed up backwards.

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And thank God there aren't any weenies in this sub forum that would take this run as gospel. It's admittedly just fantasy but that's the BECS that we have all been waiting for.

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5 minutes ago, Newman said:

The temperature gradient would be other-worldly. Temps are below zero to the single digits with heavy heavy snow. The gradient would do that. I would expect that ice you see is either snow or rain. Even if 850s were trying to warm the rates would be absolutely insane. Inland you would expect ratios to be probably higher than 10:1 with those temps. 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png

fv3p_T2m_neus_35.png

Blizzard of 1888 where people were sleeted to death in NYC

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33 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Now for the you think you have seen everything before in winter, especially after the above extravaganza, the ol' GFS spits this one out :yikes:

Seems like an interesting weather pattern is afoot

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

That looks a lot like a storm we had late Feb '10 (I think). NYC on south got blitzed with snow and it was in the 50's and raining in New England.

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16 minutes ago, Newman said:

Sorry Redsky.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

What kind of time frame is this modeled to happen over? Shift that a little east and the Lehigh Valley will definitely be beating the 3 foot we got some years back

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