Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

That IVT is going to surprise a lot of areas in SE PA and Southern NJ. It was picked up on all models, but not to the extent it is at right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ME_wannabe said:

Yes I'm 5 miles inland. We have a few inches now and remaining steady. I'd be surprised if we hit 6 but maybe close.

S+ at ACY. That is prolly 1-2/hr so I bet a few spots do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

S+ at ACY. That is prolly 1-2/hr so I bet a few spots do.

I should drive into the city and see if it's heavier. But you don't want to drive in snow in S Jersey, especially in AC, if you want to be safe. Temp is up to 36 now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ME_wannabe said:

I should drive into the city and see if it's heavier. But you don't want to drive in snow in S Jersey, especially in AC, if you want to be safe. Temp is up to 36 now. 

ACY is like 30-31. Is your thermo properly sited?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Not much accumulation here but all snow is good snow, and this is pretty much bonus snow. 29F currently.

Norlun-Snow_12-05-18.thumb.jpg.121eacedcc5bfd362a80af7718bbcc5b.jpg

It's very funny you can get snow with this as i smoke cirrus lol

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's very funny you can get snow with this as i smoke cirrus lol

 

 

You know how Norluns are, but I'm sure you'll get your share. I'm taking it as encouraging as we go forward!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only flizzard to very light snow in Levittown and occasional flurries in Trenton. No accumulation...surprised it got this far inland/north though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Brigantine NJ is getting crushed. Webcam is epic.

 

Yes it is! Meanwhile back here getting one last burst as it starts to pull east. Got about 0.3" of snow, and nice to see it snowing for a few hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Finished with 4 inches in Folsom, Atlantic County, more to my east. Didn't get to see a flake of it fall since I was in North Jersey for work, was weird, it's usually the opposite, lol.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was away from MBY most of yesterday but was near windows and in/out at the location, and only got flurries in NW Philly.  Had a low of 24 and high was 33, with above freezing temps much of the mid-day/afternoon.  Currently 29, clear and frosty this morning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RedSky said:

The next two weeks look bleak and uneventful, like you have to pay for the fast start in November

 

I was thinking the same thing, while it was a nice storm if I remember correctly a few years ago when we had snow on Halloween the winter that followed wasn’t so great. Is it a coincidence? Seems the later things get started around here the better maybe? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, RedSky said:

The next two weeks look bleak and uneventful, like you have to pay for the fast start in November

 

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

I was thinking the same thing, while it was a nice storm if I remember correctly a few years ago when we had snow on Halloween the winter that followed wasn’t so great. Is it a coincidence? Seems the later things get started around here the better maybe? 

If we're thinking of the same thing I believe it was Oct. 30, 2011. My family just got back from Disney and came home to an inch or so at our house. And 2011-'12 was..well..let's not talk about it. I was (am) hoping November snows didn't count as an early season jinx. Although now that I said jinx I think I remember many future winters were offered up as sacrifices if the Birds won the Super Bowl...(worth it!)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Give it time Ralphie, peoples in parts of the southeast are going to be singing yore on Sunday. No way we were ever going to score twice this early million to one odds lol

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Give it time Ralphie, peoples in parts of the southeast are going to be singing yore on Sunday. No way we were ever going to score twice this early million to one odds lol

 

Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think after this approx 2 week period of N to AN temps and cutter storms we shift gears finally around the 21st and I am seeing signals on some LR stuff that tells me the period Dec 22-26 give or take a day bears watching. Whether or not the better looking pattern will hold or becomes transient tbd. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cutter on the 15th ushers in a better pattern, perhaps we can steal a storm around the 18th-20th, but the pattern fully matures around the 23rd and on into January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.

Winter hasn’t even started yet....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are some of Isotherm's thoughts. Let's not bridge-jump too soon. Everything's going to plan:

 

Geopotential heights are likely to correct more positive over the PNA, NAO and southern AO domains as an ineluctable consequence of stratospheric alterations ongoing D10-12. By December 15th-16th, the geopotential structure alteration will have overspread most of North America and Greenland, as the stratospheric vortices are perturbed / displaced toward Eurasia. Robust w1 hit will impact the SPV via the felicitous tropospheric precursor pattern, and once the nascent blocking encompasses the NAO region, wave 2 will be enhanced again. This final follow-up w2 hit circa Dec 23-31 will be the primary opportunity to induce a technical SSW. I have thought that we'll come close, but near miss. Regardless, the tropospheric impacts will be quite significant. MJO should circulate should through p3, thereupon, rapidly losing coherency during passage in p4-5 by mid December. GWO should be back into/approaching phase 5 by about the solstice in my opinion. The momentum reversal processes are already beginning, as this negative/removal mini cycle will be efficiently overshadowed / dampened by the background, resuming +AAM state. +EAMT will increase in the coming week, with more rossby wave dispersion events and wly momentum injection. Classic walker cell forcing resumes again by the 18th, and we will see the retrogression of the GOAK trough into an Aleutian low position on or about December 20th/21st. As a consequence of which, temperatures neutralize/near normal by the 18th-19th, supportive of snow in the coastal Northeast as early as around the 18-20th, then cooler than normal air begins developing shortly following the EPO diminution via GOAK retrogression. December 20th-31st is colder than normal and active w/ an undercutting STJ, with SPV perturbation continuing. In other words, everything's on track. There are heterogeneous stances on initiation/timing among our colleagues here, but by and large, I see the disparities as fairly immaterial and we accord on the larger scale forcing mechanisms

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×