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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Didnt see this posted here in the Philly forum so here ya go. I'll take my 4'+ and be satisfied with winter. I think I95 can write off the next 6 days or so for all intents and anything meaningful so in essence this is mid Jan thru mid Feb. Drool worthy. 

0jc5UAP.png

This essentially says big time epic flip of all pattern flips on the way whether or not we verify the totals this is spitting out. We take. 

talk about a weenie map. 4' is just the maximum colorbar too, so this might be conservative! How does this model verify ?... I wonder what it looked like a month ago

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18 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

talk about a weenie map. 4' is just the maximum colorbar too, so this might be conservative! How does this model verify ?... I wonder what it looked like a month ago

I saw it a month ago we were in 12-18" by mid January so that worked out well...if it meant rain.

 

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Fv3 has snow on the 7th and an IVT for the Jersey coast on the 10th

fv3p_ref_frzn_neus_13.png

fv3p_ref_frzn_neus_23.png

There have been trends in all of the models for the 7th of the air being much cooler than initially anticipated. So much so that I am actually thinking most may start as snow here. Hopefully we can all at least see some flakes, it's needed in here lol

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models.

 

12zeurp.thumb.png.142b1d1f8f023f5173dcb2e7d9d49d3a.png

Looks like every coastal storm since 09-10 where I get screwed right on the edge. Lock it in boys.

Just kidding, its nice to see storm signals, even in the weenie range. We haven't had any fantasy storms to track yet this winter.

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18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

soooo is no one gonna mention that the 12z euro smokes us on day 9... only 8 days to go!! nice storm signal showing up though in all of the models.

 

12zeurp.thumb.png.142b1d1f8f023f5173dcb2e7d9d49d3a.png

Fringed ;)

In all seriousness that's the period that has looked most favorable for a few days now Jan 12-14. 

Also of note all globals and ens generally flip the crud pattern over alot earlier than previously modeled. That period ushers in winter whether the particular storm u posted a map of verifies or not. Looks to be here to stay thereafter. Busy times ahead.

Where is Paul after he was starting to get a little nervous about his winter outlook?

Btw Iceman did u see the control? Both our winter forecasts could be busted by end of next weekend lol.

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fringed ;)

In all seriousness that's the period that has looked most favorable for a few days now Jan 12-14. 

Also of note all globals and ens generally flip the crud pattern over alot earlier than previously modeled. That period ushers in winter whether the particular storm u posted a map of verifies or not. Looks to be here to stay thereafter. Busy times ahead.

Where is Paul after he was starting to get a little nervous about his winter outlook?

Btw Iceman did u see the control? Both our winter forecasts could be busted by end of next weekend lol.

 

Hey Steve....nervous for sure as no one but God knows what lies ahead but I have not wavered on the cold and storms and rumors of storms ahead....my original take on the cold by the 8th is in trouble as I think the real cold does not lock in  for at least another 12 days. However, as I keep saying we do not need below normal temps to snow in this area in January. So while I see some of the EURO runs showing a storm in about 10 days it is far from a lock - especially the solution the folks in the NY/Long Island area are hugging. It will need to be watched as a winter event is on the table....either way I remain confident of some strong cold in our future in the late January through Mid-February timeframe. This is often the timeframe that results in some of the "winter of yore" talk we have discussed. Some very interesting times ahead IMHO.....stay tuned!

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20 minutes ago, sibbley said:

That death band is running right through the center of Northampton county. Up to 0.88 as of now.

kdix_20190105_1650_BR_0.4.png

I looked at a radar loop of a wider area of that and there's some cool stuff happening.  There is broad circulation starting to wrap precip around from the NE to generate some stuff that is starting to come in from the N/NW.  On the surface map, the low sitting over VA/MD is wrapping that ocean moisture right into the CWA.

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