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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

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New FV3PGFS3CPOR2D2 has a similar look now for late next week as it just did 24 hours ago for Sunday. ICON is inline again just like 12z yesterday. Not buying the old Lucy football yank this time around....its like some sort of sick groundhog day dejavu joke. Until the euro jumps on board then I will hug it until 18z when guidance drives a stake thru the heart.

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I still don't see anything that would make me nervous yet about this winter. Last year the MJO stalled in p7 for Feb (a warm phase in February) and likely aided in the SSW we saw that gave us the cold and snowy pattern in March and April. With the enhanced convection in the tropics, it likely resulted in more heat transport into the upper atmosphere and resulted in a perturbed polar vortex. The same has occurred this year except this year in December and in p5 (a warm phase for December). Now the enhanced MJO convection isn't highhandedly the only factor, but you can't ignore the similarities between a stuck MJO last winter to this winter and a SSW that followed. A SSW is on its way similar to last winter and will likely aid in giving us our core snow and cold from January 10th-March 1st. Our ENSO phase typically argues for a back loaded winter to begin with. No need to panic everyone, patience is needed. It's coming. Hopefully.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have this very unsettling feeling that we are going to pay for all this wet weather in the form of cold and dry for weeks then a damp cool spring just to give us all a final kick while we're down. You just know it's coming. All this talk of significant pattern change....what would be more polar opposite of the (relatively) mild and wet that we have been locked into for 6 weeks?

Hints that the AO may tank, like severely tank -3 to -4 sd... Would mean suppression city here. I still think our best bet is going to be clippers going forward.

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Lake Howell is back. Radar estimates say 1" in my region but the amount of water outside looks like 3-4" fell, likely the ground is so super saturated it's not holding any water.

 

 

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The MJO RMM charts are likely not picking up on rossby wave interference. Here is a better look at the MJO progression. We should be in favorable phase 7 by Jan 4th or 5th based on this forecast. With lag taken into account, Jan 8-10th should be a good time frame for better eastern troughing to take shape.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

A jet extension could also help instead of hinder us here with increasing AAM, helping to pump the PNA ridge poleward. We want to see that Alaskan vortex retrograde to around the Aleutians which would ensure a better PNA orientation.

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_50.png

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_50.png

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Am up to 1.45" of rain so far at post time.  Temps were still rising (although it just dropped back from 59) and now up to 58 and currently have light rain.  I was surprised to see some young trees budding/blooming and my butterfly bush threw out some leaves - near the top too. lol

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

The MJO RMM charts are likely not picking up on rossby wave interference. Here is a better look at the MJO progression. We should be in favorable phase 7 by Jan 4th or 5th based on this forecast. With lag taken into account, Jan 8-10th should be a good time frame for better eastern troughing to take shape.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

Good post and graphics. Getting the MJO to phase 7 will cure a piece of our pattern issues. The cutters are having a good run, time to turn the page!

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18z GFS OP and FV3CPO really trying to spin up the 'Newman Storm' second part of next week. At this rate we'll end up with another phased cutter rather than the thread a needle wave along an old front we were originally looking at.

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47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS OP and FV3CPO really trying to spin up the 'Newman Storm' second part of next week. At this rate we'll end up with another phased cutter rather than the thread a needle wave along an old front we were originally looking at.

Nah, lol. Fwiw every model has had some variation of it in the last 4 runs. We're gonna have to work for it though.

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Ended up with 2.26". Many puddles! :flood:Anyways, at least all three main models have a signal for snow on the 4th. But, still far out its something to track though!

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On 12/26/2018 at 7:23 PM, KamuSnow said:

Anyone notice how stingy the CMC has been for snow here, since it's upgrade? It used to be a snow hero for digital snow, not any more.

Back in full weenie force!

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

gem_asnow_neus_25.png

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It’s funny how the 7 day forecast had temps in the mid 30’s for highs after the new year now today they are creeping up now forecast in the low 40’s, beginning to get a really uneasy feeling about this winter. Is it possible that November snow was precursor to a crappy winter? I’m not knowledgeable about the patterns but, I guess we have a long way to go. 

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If you enjoy winter weather keep the faith - as those of you that follow models can see the models are all struggling mightily. This is normal during significant events like the current Strat Warming event....models will start catching on - after New Years a much chillier pattern progressing in a step wise fashion toward a much below pattern by later in the month with multiple winter events possible. Remember even slightly above normal temps in January can yield snowstorms for our area. 

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

If you enjoy winter weather keep the faith - as those of you that follow models can see the models are all struggling mightily. This is normal during significant events like the current Strat Warming event....models will start catching on - after New Years a much chillier pattern progressing in a step wise fashion toward a much below pattern by later in the month with multiple winter events possible. Remember even slightly above normal temps in January can yield snowstorms for our area. 

Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! 

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EPS continues going in reverse clearly not the direction we want to step. Luckily other guidance is bouncing around still but the EPS has taken steps back for a few runs now and is actually trying to re-establish the recent meh pattern down the road. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! 

Steve - great write up today from Dr. Dewpoint (Dr.Joe D'Leo) on why folks are missing what is right in front of us - for those of us like you and I that are hobbyist we can miss the science by getting distracted by model confusion.  He continues to see the mid-January period as the start of significant winter weather that the models are missing - he is one of the best and I have no reason to think some significant cold and snow is in our future....plus it matches what I have been saying since November - so no reason for me to change now - right??

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing several pro forecasters and even some really good hobbyists starting to back down from the 'epic winter' talk and now just mentioning a subtle and slow transition to a colder pattern which might be favorable for chances. Hoping u r right Paul and we can salvage the mid Jan and forward period! 

Of course I don't know who has been calling for an "epic" winter - I certainly have not - an above normal snow year - certainly but a 55" to 60" winter in the NW Philly burbs is far from epic - now if someone was calling for an 80" + winter that would be epic but I have not seen any of those called for with this upcoming season

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6z GFS hammers central PA for the 3rd. Getting interesting.

 

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Edit. 0z placed the low around the benchmark. 6z parked the low in Jersey lol.

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1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

6z GFS hammers central PA for the 3rd. Getting interesting.

 

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Edit. 0z placed the low around the benchmark. 6z parked the low in Jersey lol.

Yet 6z was closer to a better hit based on H5....more of a classic taint to rain to pasty snow look. The Nov storm had a similar tucked track but was able to give i95 some snow so it's possible with the proper vort pass setup we could do something like that again. But we've already seen some drastic flips in the last 18 hours irt this threat so I expect more changes before guidance reaches a consensus. Looks like battle of the globals right now with the 2 heavyweights (euro and gfs) slugging it out.

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